There were 6 times the S&P futures gained more than 2.5% the day before a holiday. Over the next week, it showed positive returns only once and that too gave back all of its gains a week after.
There were 11 occurrences of pre-holiday gains of +2% or more. The next week showed positive returns only 3 times, with an average of -1.2%. The last 7 of them, dating back to 1999, were all negative over the next week.
All bear market rallies - dont be fooled - wells fargo profit is funded by tax payer - (directly through tarp or indirectly through AIG ) - if you are day trading its ok - still too dangerous for long term play.
None of the economic fundamentals has improved - biggest of them all unemployment will continue to worsen well into 2011 so expect no recovery
Quote:
Originally posted by jinxed
All bear market rallies - dont be fooled - wells fargo profit is funded by tax payer - (directly through tarp or indirectly through AIG ) - if you are day trading its ok - still too dangerous for long term play.
None of the economic fundamentals has improved - biggest of them all unemployment will continue to worsen well into 2011 so expect no recovery
Jim Cramer of CNBC recommends "Buy" and is confident index will not test previous low while Roubini of NY university says its bear market rally and index will test previous lows.
Banks are getting money at prsctically zero percent and lending (Inter bank included) at higher interest. No wonder they will report good profits especially when FASB has done away with mark to market rule under Obama admin pressure. This, in a way , is fraud being perpetrated on public. Obama admin is no different than Bush
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe
Posted on: 09-04-09 22:41:54
Location: carl sagan's universe
Posted on: 09-04-09 22:41:54
The S&P will go up and down in a sinusoidal wave.
whether it will be an ascending or descending one immediately can't say,
but in the long run, I am betting it will be upward biased.
Just as a bit of trivia, I was at a financial forum a few days ago and one converstion dwelled upon how the S&P low point on Mar 6 was 666 - the number of the devil- and since the world markets are still "ruled" by the "Christian" world, that was the low point- any lower and we would go below purgatory and the 'Christian" mind set wouldn't allow that.
Once again - please take with a grain of salt.
Quote:
Originally posted by Nightmare
Quote:
Originally posted by jinxed
All bear market rallies - dont be fooled - wells fargo profit is funded by tax payer - (directly through tarp or indirectly through AIG ) - if you are day trading its ok - still too dangerous for long term play.
None of the economic fundamentals has improved - biggest of them all unemployment will continue to worsen well into 2011 so expect no recovery
Jim Cramer of CNBC recommends "Buy" and is confident index will not test previous low while Roubini of NY university says its bear market rally and index will test previous lows.
Banks are getting money at prsctically zero percent and lending (Inter bank included) at higher interest. No wonder they will report good profits especially when FASB has done away with mark to market rule under Obama admin pressure. This, in a way , is fraud being perpetrated on public. Obama admin is no different than Bush
The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.
Leaks could push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results of the tests in an orderly fashion later this month.
Goldman Sachs plans to report first-quarter earnings April 14, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co. on April 16. Citigroup reports April 17, and Morgan Stanley announces April 21. All four banks are based in New York.
No matter what the result, the stress tests are going to move markets. That’s the tricky part. If they don’t give out enough information or the information is presented in the wrong way, that could cause markets to plunge.
The U.S. government has allocated at least $356 billion bailing out the banks alone. Most of that has been thrown down a rat hole. For this same amount of money, 10 new banks could have been chartered with $35 billion each and they could have loaned out funds at 10-to-one leverage, creating $3.5 trillion of new financial muscle.
Instead, spending hundreds of billions to make sure that AIG executives get their bonuses and Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and all the other financial institutions that were counterparty to AIG’s enormously bad trades get paid off in full. In short, the Obama administration, rather than chart a new course to fiscal sanity, is intent on re-inflating the bubble.
And how is it getting worse? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just announced that toxic debts could reach $4 trillion, up from an estimate of $2.2 trillion that it made in January.
the World Bank recently said global economic growth will slow this year by far more than previously estimated, thus sending the global economy into its first contraction — a drop of 1.7 percent — for the first time since World War II.
According to The Big Picture blog, the only times we have ever seen the stock market surge close to this much in such a short time frame were:
December 1929
June 1931
August 1932
May 1933
July 1938
September 1982
Only September 1982 and May 1933 saw the beginnings of new bull markets.
Earnings season officially started with Alcoa and Chevron warned after markets closed Thursday that its first-quarter earnings would be sharply lower than the previous quarter as lower oil and gas prices took a toll and refined-product margins shrank significantly. but it really kicks off next week. For the S&P 500, analysts are expecting earnings will decline 37 percent from the year-ago period. All 10 groups in the S&P 500 are expected to show a year-over-year decline in profits; that hasn’t happened in the 10 years Thomson Financial has been tracking this data.
The March employment report saw nonfarm employment drop by 663,000 and the unemployment rate rise to 8.5 percent. Now, bulls will tell you that job losses and unemployment are both lagging indicators. True. But as this chart shows, the pace of job losses is worse now than in the past five recessions …
The only time that America shed jobs faster was during the Great Depression, when a third of all nonfarm jobs disappeared.
In sum, fundamentals are terrible, and they haven’t improved enough to justify this rally.
Financial institutions have recorded almost $1.3 trillion in losses and writedowns since mid-2007, with more than 100 mortgage-industry companies folding in the worst housing market since the 1930s.
The Banking Crisis Still isn’t Fixed …
It’s Getting Worse!
Keep well,
Cheers!
Quote:
Originally posted by Nightmare
Quote:
Originally posted by jinxed
All bear market rallies - dont be fooled - wells fargo profit is funded by tax payer - (directly through tarp or indirectly through AIG ) - if you are day trading its ok - still too dangerous for long term play.
None of the economic fundamentals has improved - biggest of them all unemployment will continue to worsen well into 2011 so expect no recovery
Jim Cramer of CNBC recommends "Buy" and is confident index will not test previous low while Roubini of NY university says its bear market rally and index will test previous lows.
Banks are getting money at prsctically zero percent and lending (Inter bank included) at higher interest. No wonder they will report good profits especially when FASB has done away with mark to market rule under Obama admin pressure. This, in a way , is fraud being perpetrated on public. Obama admin is no different than Bush
Remember, Jim Cremer firmly declared that market has bottomed much before November lows.
Quote:
Originally posted by investpro
The S&P will go up and down in a sinusoidal wave.
whether it will be an ascending or descending one immediately can't say,
but in the long run, I am betting it will be upward biased.
Just as a bit of trivia, I was at a financial forum a few days ago and one converstion dwelled upon how the S&P low point on Mar 6 was 666 - the number of the devil- and since the world markets are still "ruled" by the "Christian" world, that was the low point- any lower and we would go below purgatory and the 'Christian" mind set wouldn't allow that.
Once again - please take with a grain of salt.
You are right, 5-10 yrs. from now probabilities of market being higher is high. But during the course one should be prepared to read negative 40%, if you decide to enter now for long term investment.
Current long term of most of my friends is one week!
