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Goa Punjab Manipur UP UK




febpreet
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Member since: Jan 07




Posts: 3244
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Quote:
Originally posted by Garvo Gujarati

Quote:
Originally posted by febpreet

Quote:
Originally posted by Garvo Gujarati

he has shown number of times being opportunist.



Yeah, right! We will soon see how people will see him as in the coming days.



Right, and if winning elections are parameters of one's qualities, Lalu is not corrupt and never went to Jail.

My friend, when people elect a government they look issues most pressing to them, and ignore few weaker aspects from an individual or a party.

That is the precious reason why we have Mayavatis, Mamatas, Lalus, Jaylalithas getting elected over and over.



Sure, as you say, Sir.


 
Post ID: 233912 07-02-17 13:18:41
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san-hugo
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Member since: Aug 10




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Quote:
Originally posted by Garvo Gujarati

That is the precious reason why we have Mayavatis, Mamatas, Lalus, Jaylalithas getting elected over and over.



Of course Maya Mamata Jaya and Lalu ! None of them moved out of their comfort zone (states). True test will be when they move out. like Modi did :-) !! and so did the idea behind AAP. Both are hit (or wait for 11 march to know more) . Importantly, It remains to be seen which one is sustainable ! Time can only convince. Modi had a great chance , but he is fizzling it away. Earlier I used to think his team is letting him down but off late he is growing hollow as well as kiddish as observed in recent speeches. Clearly he is not used to to the setbacks. Bit feeble!




 
Post ID: 233920 07-02-17 23:57:14
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Garvo GujaratiMember of Administrators
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For Punjab elections, My thoughts:
1) Generally BJP/Akali votes are supposed to be stable. In Delhi, BJP Votes didn't dip, but it was Congress votes transferred in bulk to AAP.
2) The other parties, independents gets roughly 10% of the votes.
3) BSP gets roughly 5 % of the votes
4) The vote percent for BJP/Akali should remain at around 30%
5) In Delhi congress was very weak. There is a huge difference between fighting against Ajay Maken vs Amerinder Singh. In Punjab they are doing really well.
6) So out of remaining 85 - 30 = 55 percent votes, AAP has to draw more than half chunk of Votes. Exactly half way mark is 27.5, and in order to form a government they need to pull 32% of the votes.
8) In last general election, it was Akali 4 Seats, AAP 4 Seats, Congress 3 Seats, BJP 2 Seats. If sentiment is same - Akali/BJP should get 54 seats, AAP 36 Seats, Congress, 27 Seats. Given anti-incumbency and very engaged campaign by Congress and AAP this will not be the case.
7) If BJP/Akali votes dip to 25%, then the job will be much easier.
8) AAP is strong in Malva as per reports. In the those 69 seats it need to score at the rate of 80% or more in order to get required majority.

It is still anyone's game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
A Proud Indian Canadian

 
Post ID: 233934 09-02-17 10:02:47
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febpreet
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Member since: Jan 07




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Quote:
Originally posted by Garvo Gujarati

If sentiment is same - Akali/BJP should get 54 seats,



Sentiment is quite UNfavorable for Akali/BJP this time, so I highly suspect if they could even reach 20-25 seats.


 
Last edited by: febpreet on 09-02-17 14:09:05
Post ID: 233942 09-02-17 14:08:44
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san-hugo
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GG,
The reason BJP kept its vote share in Delhi was because it was not facing anti-incumbency plus there was hangover of Modi lehar.

In Pb, anti-incumbency is huge for Akalis/BJP. So no chance of retaining its traditional vote share. Fight is between Congress and AAP. Even steven in other regions but Malwa is getting swept by AAP with possibility of above 80%. My interest is whether Amrinder, Sukhbir and Prakash Badal will be able to win from their own respective seats. I would love to see Sidhu lose , so that opportunist-ism is discouraged in Indian Politics but the bugger chose safe seat.


 
Last edited by: san-hugo on 10-02-17 01:03:49
Post ID: 233946 10-02-17 01:01:01
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febpreet
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Member since: Jan 07




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Quote:
Originally posted by san-hugo

I would love to see Sidhu lose , so that opportunist-ism is discouraged in Indian Politics but the bugger chose safe seat.




I don't mind that as well. This guy turned out to be the biggest opportunist, and the fact that he didn't hide it.


 
Post ID: 233956 10-02-17 14:00:24
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zindabad
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Member since: Sep 12




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This guy turned out to be the biggest opportunist, and the fact that he didn't hide it.





Same statement applies to Kejru ....

He is dramabaz ..
Now He is not speaking about odd-even .
He forgot about Talk to AK program which He promised that we will do it every 1 or 2 months .
Every six month He is going for luxurious treatment for his sugar control.
He wants to be CM of Punjab .
BJP -Modi will pay the price of their friendship with Akalies .
Will see on 11th march .
Even though I am BJP supporter ,I wish Congress should win this election to kick away this shit-kejriwal .

 
Last edited by: zindabad on 11-02-17 15:44:11
Post ID: 233973 11-02-17 15:43:20
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Fido
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Member since: Aug 06




Posts: 5261
Location: Canada


I hope AAP comes to power in Punjab and stays for a term or so - this would help us assess their governance as opposed to Delhi where the Centre interferes every where coz of Delhi's status.

Any takers on UP .... Appears muslim votes are getting distributed b/w SP / BSP and AIMIM ..

But so are Dalit votes also ..... very hard to predict UP outcome !!!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fido.

 
Post ID: 233974 11-02-17 17:15:58
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Delhite
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Member since: Nov 04




Posts: 929
Location: Brampton


Quote:
Originally posted by zindabad
Even though I am BJP supporter ,I wish Congress should win this election to kick away this shit-kejriwal .



............... two sides of the same coin..................

-----------------------------------------------------------------
A Delhite in Toronto

 
Post ID: 233976 12-02-17 12:56:24
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san-hugo
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Member since: Aug 10




Posts: 2001
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Exit Polls are out, showing BJP winner in 4 out of 5 states. If exit polls turns to reality , it will be huge plus for Modi who is enduring criticism from all corners now a days.
Satta bajaar is also showing BJP as winner.

ZEE Tv Exit polls
UP going to BJP
Uttrakhand to BJP
Manipur to BJP
Goa to BJP
Punjab to Congress

India TV C Voter exit poll
UP going to BJP
Uttrakhand to BJP
Manipur to BJP
Goa to BJP
Punjab to AAP


India Todays Chanakya Exit poll

UP going to BJP
Uttrakhand to BJP
Manipur to BJP
Goa to BJP
Uttrakhand to BJP
Punjab to Congress


ABP CSDS Exit Poll

UP going to BJP
Uttrakhand to BJP
Manipur to BJP
Goa to BJP
Punjab to congress

In my view, it is doubtful for BJP to form govt. in Manipur, UP and Punjab.
UP results will go into huge drama with complex alliances. BSP is underdog who can surprise many.
Uttrakhand/Goa, Manipur and Punjab will have clear winner i.e, BJP, Congress and AAP respectively.
11 March will be extremely interesting day for India, will keep my Friday night open from other commitments.


 
Last edited by: san-hugo on 10-03-17 01:18:48
Post ID: 234202 10-03-17 01:16:27
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