Half of the work I do is ridiculous. Won’t make any sense to me. For e.g. I am doing a forecast analysis where the oil is US$65/barrel. I am dumbfounded. No one knows how much it will be in Dec. 2008. No one knows how the $65/barrel number came up. I know in my conscience that the numbers I am generating won’t make any sense. Any qns I ask was looked at as “non team player” kind. That tag could lead to other things.
Hope I don’t sound like an idealist.

Any suggestions?


dio

Dio,
I think you are confusing your mind for trivial reasons. It is an accepted practice (all over the world) to put very conservative forcast estimates when calculating for the price of oil. $65 a barrel is the norm around one year now. I have been reading a lot of prospectus from the oil companies regarding their forcast of revenues (they are drilling right now and they will only hope to be producing in 2010) and all put the target in $60 range only. This is b'cos oil is so unpredicatable. Just 1 month agao, the price was $146 a barrel and all were telling that we will reach $200 by the end of the year and today it is in $113 a barrel. After China's olympics, the price of crude will still fall further.
Did you know that the govt. of Saudi Arabia calculated its country's probable revenue in 2006 by putting oil at $20 a barrel. The price of oil came much more than that, doubling the revenue that it forecast and hence was able to put on a brave face and use the excess money for its country's development. Imagine if a country / firm puts the estimate at $100 and while the actuals were $50. The country would have gone bankrupt / fall into a debt trap or the firm would be under legal scrutiny.
These are the norms followed everywhere.
No wonder that your team members are not considering yourself to be a team player. In such a volatile market / or where an error could cost the company millions it is only prudent to go with the flow. Personally, I would never work for companies where your action can bring profit or loss to the company b'cos in the case of the latter your head will roll and you may be subject to legal actions.
Hope this helps.
Peace

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I am a Gents and not a Ladies.

I am in the oil field and the 65 $ forecast is normal. The present prices are abnormal and oil companies are conservative in there budgets. Only if the present prices continue for another 10 years that they will consider raising the estimates.

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You know you are a desi when ........ You spew forth the virtues of India, but don't want to live there...............You've never had a tanning salon membership

I think when you are working in a team you should always go along with the team. Its always necessary to put forward your ideas & what you think with logical reasons & beliefs in case of forecast, but its also equally necessary to listen to the feedbacks & what other people think of your ideas. If majority of the team thinks its not worth to go along with the idea, even you should throw that idea out of your mind no matter how much you believe in yourself & your instinct. Just don’t forget to present all your logical reasons infront of the team.

I think what TAMILKUVARAN mention about Saudi Arabia is true. They were the first nation to step against the high oil price during the present oil hype. I think all this oil price mostly depends on the US recession. When US decrease their lending rates, all the banks start investing their money in oil & all of you people know what happens to any commodity when there is a lot of investment being done. Eventually the price of the commodity goes up. This bank guys also need to collect the revenue (profit) what they have projected even when the lending rates goes down.

Presently all of the north world country is busy in projecting their claims for the Artic ocean & north pole region where there is approximately 25% of world oil. There is a quite cold war being going on between RUSSIA, US, Greenland, Canada & Finland for their part of claims being approved.

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i..........rock........!!!!!

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Originally posted by desi in ottawa

Half of the work I do is ridiculous. Won’t make any sense to me.
...
...
...
I know in my conscience that the numbers I am generating won’t make any sense. Any qns I ask was looked at as “non team player” kind. That tag could lead to other things.
Hope I don’t sound like an idealist.

Any suggestions?


dio

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If you have a gun, you can rob a bank.
If you have a bank, you can rob everyone.
- Bill Maher

Thx folks. Another few days of this work and I am gone for vacation down south.

dio