I agree with the car dude for most part - Chrysler will liquidate and GM will be in chapter 11 - meaning over 50,000 jobs in GTA alone will evaporate leaving cities like Oshawa an economic wasteland

However I am really pessimistic long term and dont think there will be any recovery by Jan - Feb 2010 - if anything that will be the time when you'll see thousands of homeless, jobless people on streets, crime, racial and social tensions and an underground economy.

What leads me to this conclusion is that NA consumer spending - which drives the world economy - poeple in US / Canada buy big ticket items on credit which are manufactured in China, China in turn buys commodities such as Steel, Zinc, Copper, Oil and Natural gas from Australia, Brazil , Gulph etc ... also Americans call people in India/Egypt / Phillipines etc to get support for these products - well guess what - with already over a million jobs being lost every month - consumer has retrenched and is not coming back anytime soon - so you will see dominos falling - commercial real estate, housing, bdi, equities, financial institutions - all this will lead to a continued downward spiral in jobs for next 5-10 years

The recovery as Roubini says will be L shaped which is hardly a recovery - as economy will permanently shrink - watch out for tomorrow's NFP report - it will be ugly.

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sAnToShI

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MJ

High-Tech Job Losses Soar in Q1

This is the largest number of job losses since 2002.

The U.S. technology sector suffered 84,217 job cuts in the first quarter of 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which reported the figure is a 27 percent increase over the previous quarter and the largest total since the end of 2002.

First quarter totals are about five times higher than the same period last year, which peaked at 17,345 high-tech jobs cut. The firm reports that job cuts in the technology sector—which includes telecommunications, computer and electronics—have increased in each of the last five quarters by an average of 42 percent every three months.

But technology sector job cuts are expected to remain "heavy in the coming months," the firm reports.

Industry research firms Gartner and Forrester Research both adjusted 2009 spending forecasts downward by about four percent and three percent, respectively. With other sectors such as healthcare and government cutting back, technology companies are ultimately impacted.

"When all these sectors make cutbacks, it inevitably impacts the technology sector," said John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.

Specifically, the telecom industry saw 18,972 jobs cut, the computer sector lost 31,580 jobs, and electronics positions eliminated totaled 33,665 in the first quarter.

"We may start to see an increase in merger activity among tech firms, as they attempt to gain an economic and competitive foothold in this downturn," Challenger said. "In most mergers, the first step taken to offset the cost of the merger is to eliminate redundant positions."

Keep well,

Cheers!

Can Ford keep its head above water?

After Chrysler and GM bankruptcies now it is the turn of FORD.

Ford is the only one of the Detroit Three that hasn't asked for a bailout or filed for bankruptcy in the United States, but Ford Canada president and CEO David Mondragon said the new cost-cutting labour deals at Chrysler and GM are hurting the company's ability to compete. "We are very anxious to sit down with the CAW. We need to act now to be competitive in the global auto industry," Mondragon said Friday in an interview with The Canadian Press.

"We do not have a cost of productivity advantage today in Canada versus other North American jurisdictions, so we've got to bring ourselves in line, not only with our competitors here in Canada but with our other manufacturing facilities in the United States as well."

One of Ford’s largest suppliers, Visteon, will also make a trip to bankruptcy court. Ford it giving Visteon debtor-in-possession financing. Visteon was a part of Ford until it was spun out in 2000.

But Ford admits that trouble with its suppliers could become increasingly expensive. In its last 10-Q the company wrote “it is reasonably possible that our costs to ensure an uninterrupted supply of materials and components could be higher than our present planning assumptions by a material amount.”

With all of the news coverage that GM and Chrysler are getting it is hard to remember that Ford lost $2.3 billion in the first quarter of the year and only had $24.8 billion on its balance sheet. A conversion of convertible notes has improved Ford’s finances since March 31. Revenue for that period was down to $21.4 billion from $39.1 billion in the same period a year ago.

Ford faces two problems, and it is possible that it will not be able to solve either of them. The firm’s US market share in the first quarter was only 13.9%. That is down from 15% in the first quarter of 2008. Ford cannot afford for that figure to go any lower. The large Japanese and Korean manufacturers will use their balance sheets to make certain that product development and efficient operations give them an ongoing edge in costs and quality.

Ford also faces competition which it might well deem as unfair from GM and Chrysler. They will be free of many of their costs after bankruptcies and government assistance. The Administration will be tempted to throw good money after bad if its two wards do not meet their projections. Ford will not have access to that kind of funding if it stays with its pledge to keep its hands out of the government’s pockets.

Ford cannot avoid the fact that the auto parts industry is in as much or more trouble than the large manufacturers. That is not news to anyone who reads the papers, but the trouble is becoming more acute each month that the auto market does not improve and with every call from the car companies asking for more price concessions. A breakdown of the auto supply chain will hurt every car company in America, but Ford may not have access to capital to ride out a long interruption.

Keep well,

If GM and others have filed bankcruptcy petetions it does not mean the factories have closed. Though there may be statastics of job losses but does not mean that no new openings have been created or no body will be hired.