http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dffd4672-5789-11dc-8c65-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=a6dfcf08-9c79-11da-8762-0000779e2340.html


India tops growth forecasts
By Reuters August 31 09:56:51 BST

Strong manufacturing and services kept India’s economy steaming ahead at a much faster pace than expected in the April-June quarter, but analysts said on Friday the tempo could slow slightly later in the year.

Tighter monetary policy, seen eroding domestic consumption, and global market turmoil stemming from US subprime lending were expected to check Asia’s third-largest economy in coming quarters, with further rate hikes seen unlikely at this stage.


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The annual growth rate for India’s fiscal first quarter was 9.3 per cent, topping both a median forecast of 8.9 per cent in a Reuters poll and growth of 9.1 per cent the previous quarter.

The stock market extended its strong opening gains after the data, rising as much as 1.5 per cent on the day. The rupee was strengthened slightly to around 41.00 per dollar, while the benchmark 10-year bond edged up 1 basis point to 7.92 per cent.

”We expect growth to slow down to below 9 per cent in the ensuing quarters as the consumption slowdown takes effect and export demand faces headwinds from turmoil in financial markets,” said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities in Mumbai.

Analysts said, however, the central bank was likely to remain vigilant about a build-up of price pressures, especially after it said on Thursday that such pressures could persist.

”There is no need to change the monetary stance, but there has to be a close monitoring,” said Saumitra Chaudhuri, economic adviser at domestic ratings agency ICRA.

Separate data showed annual wholesale price inflation dropped below 4 per cent for the first time since April 2006, to stand at 3.94 per cent on Aug. 18 – well below the central bank’s target of around 5 per cent for the fiscal year ending in March 2008.

Manufacturing, a key driver in four years of rapid GDP expansion, grew an annual 11.9 per cent in the April-June quarter, slightly slower than 12.4 per cent in the previous three months.

Services grew at an annual pace of 10.6 per cent, while farming, which the government is trying to revive, expanded more than expected at 3.8 per cent, matching the previous quarter.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year that ended March 2007, its fastest pace in 18 years and second only to China among major economies, and the central bank expects expansion of 8.5 per cent this fiscal year.

India is now a $1 trillion economy, and this has given it increasing muscle in world trade talks and seen it invited to meetings of the world’s leading industrialised economies.

The central bank said on Thursday the country was on the verge of a step-up in its growth trajectory but only if accompanied by vigilance on price and financial stability.

The central bank raised interest rates five times between June 2006 and March and increased banks’ reserve requirements to cool the property market and calm inflation and loan demand.

Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told reporters that despite tighter monetary policy, authorities would ensure that credit flow to ”productive sectors” remained strong.

Greater global integration has boosted exports and attracted billions in investment, but the central bank warned there could be some adverse impact from external influences, especially from financial markets.

”Further deterioration in subprime delinquencies could lead to reassessment of risk by investors across products and markets and retrenchment of capital from the emerging market economies,” its annual report said.

However, economists see expansion averaging 7-8 per cent for the next few years due to private sector growth and spending by India’s swelling middle classes, which should help buttress the economy in the event of a slowdown in demand around the world.

The scorching pace has generated jobs but it has also put pressure on roads, ports and other infrastructure, and increased wage and price pressures.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070924.wcifinandundee0924/GIStory/

CI launches hostile bid for DundeeWealth
Globe and Mail Update


Monday, September 24, 2007

CI Financial Income Fund has launched a hostile bid for DundeeWealth Inc.

The unsolicited offer, which was unveiled by CI after the end of trading, amounts to $20.25 a DundeeWealth share, and represents a premium of around 52 per cent from Monday's closing price of $13.31.

In a statement, CI Financial said it believes that a union with DundeeWealth offers “significant benefits” and that their combined strengths will “unlock tremendous opportunities and significantly enhance value” for shareholders.

“Our offer is...59 per cent above the recent offer for a minority stake by The Bank of Nova Scotia,” said William Holland, CI Financial's Chief Executive Officer, adding that the offer “fully reflects the exceptional businesses” that has been built by the Goodman family over the years.

CI's bid comes just after Scotiabank invested $608 million in DundeeWealth to buy about a fifth of the Toronto company, which operates the Dynamic Mutual Funds network.

Last week, Scotiabank said it would pay $348 million for 18 per cent of DundeeWealth in a new stock issue. That deal gave Scotiabank an option to raise the stake to 20 per cent and possibly to buy a controlling stake.

CI said Monday that the completion of its bid is dependent on the Scotiabank sale not taking place.

CI expects the offer will proceed as a takeover bid and will likely be in a position to mail the bid in early October. The bid will need the approval of two-thirds of all DundeeWealth shareholders, as well as regulatory approvals and due diligence, CI said.

“We believe this transaction will be financially attractive to DundeeWealth shareholders and will enable them to participate in the future growth potential of CI Financial,” Mr. Holland said. “In addition, we expect that DundeeWealth's advisers, employees and customers will benefit from the combination of these two exceptional firms.”

Please find a special market update from Fred Sturm and team commenting on natural resources - revised outlook for oil price, the Fed's rate cut and what it means for investors in funds managed by his team. Below you will find some key points and attached is the full summary. Please let me know if you have any questions

Key points:

* Fred reiterated his general guidance that the commodity price uptrend should last into the next decade

* he remains a big believer in human ingenuity - higher commodity prices will create incentive to produce more, to produce substitutes, to conserve and to find alternatives. The resource funds and Mackenzie Growth Fund have participated in several technology leaders in energy services and renewable energy

* U.S. Fed easing should extend the current economic and bull market cycle into 2008 without a global recession in 2007, 2008 and perhaps not in 2009 either

* expect demand for resources to be higher in 2007 vs 2006 and higher again in 2008 vs 2007 which should be sufficient to maintain a "high plateau" pricing environment for resource companies. May lead to another push to new highs for select commodity prices

* As we progress through this cycle there is the possibility that oil prices will spike higher, in the $95 to $105 range with a low end of $50 (revised up from $40 Fred has argued over the past two years)

* Saudis will try to contain spikes but will be increasingly challenging as production from giant oil fields plateau

* expect other commodities to hit new highs - wheat is already there, iron ore and gold may not be far behind. Also expect refining margins to surprise on strength

* expect other commodities that have sold off to enjoy a rally - i.e. natural gas and nickel

* August pullback gave Fred a chance add to energy and gold and he has been maintaining near fully invested portfolios. Gold & precious metals (silver + platinum) is now ~20% of the resource funds (neutral weight would be ~10-12%)

* At some point, 2-3yrs out, may warrant meaningful cautious approach as commodity prices sell in response to a slowing global economy

So if you come to Canada and you and your spouse are earning above $43,000 you are better off than the median.

For one person alone it is $25,000.

This info is for one and all not just the new settlers.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=e808c4b3-5cb3-4f3e-96c8-5bedccdb8b68&k=53500




Country's top earners paid at least $89K: study


Most families 'pedalling faster just to stay in place'
Shannon Proudfoot, CanWest News Service
Published: Tuesday, September 25, 2007
An annual salary of $181,000 was enough to place someone among the top 1% of Canadian taxpayers in 2004, according to the most recent figures from Statistics Canada.

Membership in the super-elite club consisting of the highest-paid 0.01% required annual pay of $2.8-million. At the marginally more accessible end of the scale, the top 5% brought home annual salaries of at least $89,000.

In terms of family income, $154,000 a year earned a place among the top 5%, while $4.3-million ranked a Canadian family among the richest 0.01% -- up from $1.9-million in 1992.


By contrast, a mid-income family earned $43,000 a year in 2004--a number that's been virtually unchanged for 22 years.

"What you're seeing is they're pedalling faster just to stay in place," says Armine Yalnizyan, an economist and research fellow with Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

In 1982, the threshold for the top 0.01% of individual earners was 55 times that of the median. By 2004, it was more than 115 times larger.

The study found that high-income Canadians are paying an increasing share of personal income taxes along with their higher earnings. However, about 100 people in the top 0.01% of earners paid no tax at all in 2004.

"Tax deductions such as business losses and gifts to the Crown are responsible for a number of these situations," Statistics Canada reports.

The top 5% of earners enjoyed 30% growth in their income between 1992 and 2004, and the top 0.01% saw their earnings more than double. During that same period, the other 95% of Canadians saw almost no change in their overall income, though certain pockets within that group -- including those at the very bottom-- saw some gains.

"People were told, 'Work hard, get better-educated, improve your productivity, grow the economy and good things will come to you,' " Ms. Yalnizyan says. "This report basically says it doesn't for 95% of the population."

So who are the highest-paid Canadians?

Three-quarters of the top 5% were men, even though men comprise a minority (48%) of individual income tax filers. The group is even more male-dominated at the highest end of the income spectrum: Just one in nine of the top 0.01% of earners were women in 2004. However, there were 10% more women among the highest-earning 5% in 2004 than in 1982.

"Women are climbing the corporate ladder," said Patricia Lovett-Reid, senior vice-president at TD Waterhouse.

"It takes some time to have the economic side of things catch up with our performance, but it is starting to happen and the trajectory in my opinion is very positive," Ms. Lovett-Reid said.

Over three-quarters (78%) of the top 5% of earners are married, Statistics Canada reports, and that figure climbs to 83% for the highest-income 0.01%.

In geographic terms, almost half (46%) of the top-earning 5% of taxpayers live in Ontario, followed distantly by Quebec (18%), Alberta (15%) and British Columbia (13%). Among the top 0.01%, after Ontario, Alberta was the second most popular province, home to 23% of the super-rich.

Almost one-third (31%) of families with incomes above $250,000 lived in Toronto, followed by Montreal (11%), Vancouver and Calgary (both 8%).

Differences between Canada and the U.S. are striking at the upper end of the income scale, Statistics Canada found. In Canada, the top 5% of earners made at least $89,000 in 2004, but the cutoff for that group in the United States was $165,000.

Looks like Excel Funds is gonna have competition.

Many may have seen Ravi Sood of Lawrence Asset Management on BNN. Looks like he has teamed up with Reliance to launch a new India-centric fund here in Canada



Portfolio Managers from Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd. headquartered in Mumbai, India will be in attendance to discuss the various investment opportunities that exist in India, as well as the strategies that will be utilized within this new open-ended Fund.

OVERVIEW

Lawrence India Fund has been established as a growth oriented, long-short Fund designed to generate long-term capital appreciation through a portfolio of companies located in India. Investors in the Fund will benefit from exposure to the fast growing Indian economy; exclusive access to Indian equity markets; along with the knowledge and expertise of Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd. - one of the largest and best performing fund managers in India with assets in excess of US$17 billion (as of July 2007).

ATTRIBUTES OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY

* Projected GDP growth of 7%-8% for the next several years
* Rapid growth of India's middle class has fueled increases in domestic consumption in sectors such as retail, banking, automotive, telecom, etc.
* Infrastructure spending of US$350 billion projected over the next 5 years to support the growing economy
* India currently provides outsourcing services to ~40% of the world's largest corporations; an industry supported by an extremely well-educated workforce that produces 2 million new graduates per annum
* Indian corporations are emerging as significant international players, with an appetite for global acquisitions.

http://www.tsx.com/


Friday, September 28, 2007 - Excel India Trust Opens the Markets
Bhim Asdhir, President & CEO, Excel Funds Management Inc., opened the market today. Excel Funds Management Inc designed Excel India Trust to provide investors with exposure to an actively managed portfolio consisting primarily of equity securities of Indian companies. Excel is the manager and trustee of the Trust. This is the first Excel fund to list on TSX, trading under the symbol EXI.UN.

Gleaned from fol ttp://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071002.wibworld02/GIStory/

... Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg sees it differently. He said Mr. Bernanke could soon find himself in what he dubbed "a reverse conundrum." When Mr. Greenspan pushed up interest rates from a low of 1 per cent in mid-2004, he often complained of being perplexed that the moves didn't seem to move longer-term interest rates, including the yield on 10-year Treasury bills. He called it a conundrum, and could offer only theories as to why higher interest rates we're not doing the trick.

Mr. Rosenberg said the dysfunctional financial markets are similarly limiting the impact of Mr. Bernanke's rate cut, which is aimed at least partly at the slumping housing market. Yet, since the move, longer-term rates have moved higher, making mortgages more expensive, not less.

"Investors should be factoring in the likelihood that the Fed will be forced to cut rates even more than it otherwise would," he warned in a note to clients yesterday. "A high degree of illiquidity continues to plague the money markets."....


Mr. Rosenberg predicted Mr. Bernanke eventually could be forced to cut the federal funds rate as much as 2.50 percentage points, or to a low of 2.25 per cent, to have any perceptible effect. The rate is now at 4.75 per cent.