Canadian home sales forecast lifted

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Rajeev Narula   
Member since: Mar 05
Posts: 409
Location: Mississauga

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 05-10-07 01:31:13

Originally posted by rahul_singh23

Why the realtors and their associations think that Price UP = GOOD, and Price Down = BAD?

Real Estate is an "asset", and I don't think anyone wants to see their asset depreciate. None of the reports blatantly assert the assumption Price Up = Good or Price Down = Bad. It is entireley the situation of an individual that determines good or bad for them. If you are a buyer in an "up" market, it may be still be good for you if you feel that the prices will continue to rise.


Maybe I'm not that bright, but why is it in the Realtor's interest to say the "the market will continue to go UP"?

Firstly, REBs are not the only ones who generate reports. There are banks, investment firms and Research institutions who generate their own assessments based on statistics, market performance and other economic indicators like employment, wage increase, political stability etc. Real Estate is not just a common man's roof over head but also an investment for individuals and businesses. When all indicators show that the RE market will improve, how do you think these reports should put it? It is a credibility issue.


Would it hurt them to just say, "We're not really sure on the direction of the market or better to wait as per my honest opinion". That would be honest, and I don't think it would cost those sales.

Sometimes, there are simultaneously conflicting reports using same statistics but analysed differently. End of the day, these reports also contain Financial Analyst's own personal opinions and as said before it is a credibility issue. If an analyst's/ business house's report are not in sync with the real situation or the future expected trend, who will trust it?


Am I missing something?

If people are actually buying a home to LIVE in, and not for speculative purposes like buying a stock, then who cares if the market next month goes up or down?

Strange to hear this question from someone who has been posting tooooo much data & reports & doomsday predictions on market crash! :confused:


If realtors/mortgage broker/associates businesses care about volume, which they should, they would want price levels to be sustainable and affordable to the majority of the population. Not massive increase, followed by massive plunge in sales volume.

Absolutely agree. I don't think that every Realtor actually feels elated or depressed at these reports....whether positive or negative. Our business depends upon our individual efforts and we all strive to assist as many people in their real estate needs.

Rajeev Narula, Broker, REALTOR®
10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Suite 704
(Opp Square One - HWY10/403)
Mississauga, ON L5R 3K6
Bus: 1-888-355-3155 Ext. 300
Fax: 1-888-443-3155
Web:" rel="nofollow">LINK

Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 05-10-07 11:13:08

Thanks Rajeev. I always love to read your postings.

"If people are actually buying a home to LIVE in, and not for speculative purposes like buying a stock, then who cares if the market next month goes up or down?"

This is only when price goes up/down few grand and people don't treat house as ATM machine. But 20% increase in a year and one company/person buy 10-20 condos (fake shortage) in 2 hrs that is scary part.

Member since: Jun 04
Posts: 298
Location: Calgary

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 09-10-07 13:49:46

As long as people are coming to Canada or to any city prices will move up and Canadian economy is doing great, lowest unemployment in years.

Another example: Detroit. Hmm. Wonder homes are selling for 28K and up. Once a great city and more than half the population has left. No body wants to buy there. Its effects are seen on the Canadian side - Windsor, Sarnia etc

Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 11-10-07 17:08:52

The Good Doctor assumes our hypothetical buyer is looking to purchase a home in SoCal for $500,000. The equivalent of a similar house that’s being offered for rent by its owner (probably someone who bought at the peak of the bubble and is underwater) is $2,200 a month. Buyer would put 5% down. And under the alternative scenario, the buyer rents instead and puts the down payment and the monthly “differential” – the difference between the rent and the $4,057 a month mortgage payment – into an investment earning 7%.

He assumes that the house appreciates an average of 2% a year, which he admits could be optimistic given that “many bears are predicting nominal losses in the double-digits.” But lets give housing bulls the benefit of the doubt for the moment.

After five years, here how the two alternatives stack up:

BUY: Amount of home equity is $56,379.
RENT: Value of that investment account is $106,843.

So it’s better to rent over a five-year horizon. And if home prices continue to decline, that $56k in home equity could be wiped out.

In fact, Dr. Housing Bubble concludes that you’d have to own the home for 17 YEARS before the return from homeownership would match that of renting-and-investing.

BUY: Amount of home equity is $320,859.
RENT: Value of that investment account is $324,517.

His conclusion?

Big Vee   
Member since: Jan 05
Posts: 456
Location: Canada-Glorious and Free

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 12-10-07 12:02:54

For those that DO NOT understand why it is important to have these figures, allow me to explain.

Housing market data is one of the basic (primary) indicators of an economy. Like unemployment data, durable good data, car sales data and so on. Growth in real estate means growth in the economy. This information is also used to calculate secondary indicators like price index and gross domestic product.

Real estate associations are the keepers of this data and so it is only fitting that they announce it. You are free to use this information as you see fit. Somehow, I feel data from a RELIABLE SOURCE and aggregated over many instances is more indicative of reality than some anecdotal blog full of assumptions. The biggest assumption being that someone is going to rent a home to you for a loss. Below market rental are the sub-prime of the rental business. It cannot last.


Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 16-10-07 14:58:33

Calgary today.
7,482 sfh
2,775 condos
50 mobile homes
1,163 land lots
Total MLS:11,472 properties for sale

Welist: more than 2000 total listing

Total Calgary listing 13472.

This does not include the new homes are coming for sale in next few months.
We are state of no business right now.

Seller does not want to bring price dramatically down and buyer is not in hurry. Buyer is waiting that every week average price is going down with more number of houses for sale.
A co-worker has been trying to sell her home for more than 3 months. She already reduced her price thrice (nearly $30,000). No end in sight. No one responded to her ad, and not even one visitor for the open house. It’s sad because, she is not a flipper. But I guess she should price it right. She finally fired realtor and trying to sell herself.

The market is way over-priced. Anyone buying even for 10% reduced prices are in for trouble. These houses aren't worth half of the current price.


information from the Calgary Development Listing as of July 25, 2007.

Number of units under construction: 6771
Number of units approved: 5053
Number of units proposed: 14524

Total condo U/C, approved and proposed: 26348

Member since: Jan 07
Posts: 19

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 17-10-07 12:41:16

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