Canadian home sales forecast lifted

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Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 07-09-07 18:05:05

How long did it take Time Magazine and CNN and other U.S. media outlets to start recognizing the Housing bubble and current Housing Panic (and beginning of a housing crash) that is happening in several U.S. cities and counties. It took at least 2 years after the markets in the U.S. reached their peaks.

How long did it take in Edmonton? A few months? That's fairly fast. I'm still shocked to see these articles in the Edmonton Sun and Journal. GIve it time...they're still in the "no its just a temp blip and things will go higher in the fall...or wait next spring..or wait, summer 2008 cuz summer is the best time to show a house off". These are the same excuses the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in the U.S. used when housing was falling hard in the u.s. the past 18 months.

I still can't believe how fast the news is already being printed in Canada about the downturn in real estate. Like I said, Give the media time, they're pretty slow. They're not "experts" in any field, they just write articles and search the internet, etc, etc. They don't have time to do any real investigation. So, once the media knows about it,most likely most of the people living in that city where that paper is publish and has any passing interest in the subject (real estate) already knows about it. The paper is to tell everyone else who didn't give a craps ass about real estate to go "oh hey housing is down...crazy".

Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 21-09-07 17:28:32

House prices to drop much lower: Greenspan
Friday September 21, 3:25 am ET

VIENNA (Reuters) - A big overhang of property will bring U.S. house prices down further, but it is too early to say if the economy will plunge into recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday.

Greenspan said in an interview with Austrian magazine Format that low interest rates in the past 15 years were to blame for the house price bubble, but that central banks were powerless when they tried to bring it under control.

"It's a difficult situation, there is an enormous overhang on the real estate market," Greenspan was quoted as saying. "Many buildings which just have been finished can't be sold ..."

"So far, prices have dropped only slightly. But it was enough to cause alarm around the world," he said. "Prices are going to fall much lower yet."

"However, it is too early to answer the question about a recession. We simply don't know yet. It depends on how flexibly the economy can react," he said.

Greenspan said deregulation and the introduction of market economies in the former Communist bloc after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 had caused a global boom and a worldwide reduction of interest rates, which both helped fuel the property bubble.

"There is no doubt about the fact that low interest rates for long-term government bonds have caused the real estate bubble in the United States," he said.

"The Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate increases in 2004. We were hoping to bring the speculative excesses in the real estate sector under control. We failed. We tried it again in 2005. Failure," he said.

"Nobody could do anything about it, neither us nor the European Central Bank. We were powerless," he said.

Member since: Apr 06
Posts: 124

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 23-09-07 17:46:57

I agree with rahul_singh23. I think housing market is going down by atleast 15-20 percent and thats a huge amount so I think its better to wait for another 3-4 months.



Desi Lion

Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 24-09-07 18:58:09

I think it's better to wait at least 6 months to a year (or till renting is better option financially than owning the same place).
Today displaying avg. price 470K which is 30K down within a month it seems. Some unofficial website and discussion forum saying there is more than 15K home sale in Calgary area. This is highest in Calgary history.

My present condo owner is trying to sell his single family home so he can move to this condo (downsizing him). He gave me 3 months time so he can move and rid off single family home. He is asking 510K for single family home which is 1.5 yrs older, the same price he paid 5 months back. No offer in last 2 months on his single family home. I am leaving his condo soon then he needs to pay 2 mortgages. He is really nice intelligent man but his friend who is realtor/mortgage broker advice him to buy.

Today I am juggling between 4 condo rentals. All owners are calling me 2 times a day to sign the lease. Three out of them already tried to sell and now back to renting condo. Funny thing all are looking for spring to sale and ready to loose $500 or more every month.
I know there is still bull in RE market who is selling idea of AB economy, people are moving, immigration, 6 figures salary, just to buy what you get don’t think about money... a lot of crap.

Rajeev Narula   
Member since: Mar 05
Posts: 409
Location: Mississauga

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 04-10-07 12:44:52

While Alberta is Reeling, Ontario is Growing........

Canadian building permits up again in August
Canadian Press

October 4, 2007 at 9:10 AM EDT

OTTAWA — Statistics Canada says municipalities issued $6.3-billion worth of building permits in August, up 1.4 per cent from $6.2-billion in July.

The agency says it was the fourth straight month in which permits topped $6-billion and was second only to the record $6.9-billion recorded in May and June.

The figures suggest that both the housing and non-residential construction sectors remain strong and the building industry has a busy autumn ahead.

Despite a slowdown in the United States, the Canadian housing market remains bullish, with $3.9-billion worth of permits in issued August, virtually unchanged from July.

Provincially, Ontario showed the strongest growth, with oil-boom Alberta recording a decline.

Rajeev Narula, Broker, REALTOR®
10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Suite 704
(Opp Square One - HWY10/403)
Mississauga, ON L5R 3K6
Bus: 1-888-355-3155 Ext. 300
Fax: 1-888-443-3155
Web:" rel="nofollow">LINK

Rajeev Narula   
Member since: Mar 05
Posts: 409
Location: Mississauga

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 04-10-07 12:46:08

And following on the heels of August Record Sales....

This is a news excerpt from Market Watch......

Second Best September
October 3, 2007 -- September put in another excellent performance, with 6,866 single family units changing hands through the TorontoMLS system, Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Maureen O’Neill announced today. “This figure was up four per cent from last year (6,622 sales), and off only six per cent from the record 7,326 sales recorded during September of 2005.” Year-to-date sales, at 73,827, were up 12 per cent over 2006. “They are also,” the President went on to note, “up 11 per cent over the first nine months of 2005, which turned out to be the best year ever recorded in the history of TREB.”

Prices rebounded in September, rising five per cent over August to $380,132. On a year-over-year basis they were up also up five per cent, to $371,848 from the $352,318 recorded during the first nine months of 2006.Breaking down the total, 2,613 sales were reported in TREB’s 28 West districts and averaged $351,328; 1,298 sales were reported in the 14 Central districts and averaged $501,419; 1,380 sales were reported in the 23 North districts and averaged $404,663; and 1,575 sales were reported in TREB’s 21 East districts and averaged $306,467

Rajeev Narula, Broker, REALTOR®
10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Suite 704
(Opp Square One - HWY10/403)
Mississauga, ON L5R 3K6
Bus: 1-888-355-3155 Ext. 300
Fax: 1-888-443-3155
Web:" rel="nofollow">LINK

Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 04-10-07 17:29:43

This post is not offending or defending anyone but more like to understand this big Questions:

Why the realtors and their associations think that Price UP = GOOD, and Price Down = BAD?


Maybe I'm not that bright, but why is it in the Realtor's interest to say the "the market will continue to go UP"?

Every release from the NAR/US real estate Board/CREB/EREB has some dumb-ass statement that looks same all over their websites from coast to coast.
"The market will continue to rise or that even though the market is down, it is still up Year over Year". "
“Price increases may moderate slightly as the market returns to pre-boom levels but I do not anticipate that actual prices will decrease.”
“Buyers have a large selection of homes to choose from and they are taking more time to make a decision,”
“REALTORS® are optimistic and see any price dips as temporary and within the normal range for this market.”

Would it hurt them to just say, "We're not really sure on the direction of the market or better to wait as per my honest opinion". That would be honest, and I don't think it would cost those sales.

Am I missing something?

If people are actually buying a home to LIVE in, and not for speculative purposes like buying a stock, then who cares if the market next month goes up or down?

If realtors/mortgage broker/associates businesses care about volume, which they should, they would want price levels to be sustainable and affordable to the majority of the population. Not massive increase, followed by massive plunge in sales volume.

Curious to know?

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