Best Year Ever with Six Weeks To Go!

November 19, 2007 -- November 19, 2007 -- With six weeks remaining, 2007 has already become the best year on record for resale homes in the Greater Toronto Area, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

“As I predicted last month, 2007 will indeed be a banner year for home sales in our city,” said Ms. O’Neill. “So far this year, 84,994 properties have changed hands, as compared to 84,145 sales in 2005, our previous best year.”

With 3,544 transactions to mid-month, November sales are also up five per cent compared the same timeframe last year.

The current average price is $393,084, a nine per cent increase over the first half of November 2006.

The year-to-date average price stands at $374,678, up six per cent over the $352,807 recorded during the first 111⁄2 months of 2006.

In West Agincourt (E05), transactions were up 39 per cent as compared to the same timeframe a year ago, driven by a significant increase in detached home sales.

Newmarket (N07) saw an increase of 50 per cent compared to the midway point of last November, due to a substantial number of detached and semi-detached home sales.

Northwest Cooksville (W15) experienced an overall sales increase of 27 per cent compared to mid- November 2006, mainly as a result of condominium townhouse sales.

In the downtown core (C01) condominium apartment transactions resulted in a 32 per cent overall increase as compared to the first half of last November.

“All of the economic conditions remain in place for a strong housing market in the GTA. The unemployment rate fell by approximately half a per cent last month, Statistics Canada anticipates sustained immigration throughout the next decade and mortgage rates remain historically low,” said Ms. O’Neill. “Toronto is a very vibrant city in which to live and compared to other urban centres like New York, Los Angeles and London, our housing is very affordable.”

Followed by mid-November report by Hemang, here is the latest report of November.

Toronto city is experiencing increased sales to avoid Toronto City Land Transfer Tax deadline. This tax will be levied on agreements for Purchase & Sale contracted on or after Jan 01, 08 for any closing date beyond Feb1, 2008. Contracts entered in 2007 for closing anytime in 2008 are exempt, and so are the contracts entered in Jan 2008 for closing in Jan 2008.


Here is the excerpt from the latest Market Watch report from TREB:

Best November Ever, Best Year Ever!
December 5, 2007 -- A record-breaking November saw 7,313 sales, driving year-to-date totals to 88,695 sales, TREB President Maureen O'Neill announced today. "We have already exceeded the 84,145 sales recorded during 2005, which was our previous record," said the President. "By the end of December we will have crossed the 90,000 sales mark for the very first time. As 2007 winds down, the GTA resale home market is looking as healthy as it has ever been."

Prices were almost unchanged in November, with the average at $393,747, down marginally from the $394,646 recorded in the previous month. It was up 11 per cent over the $355,727 recorded during November 2006. Meanwhile, days-on-market came in at 32, and the list-to-sale price ratio was 98 per cent.

Breaking down the total, 2,725 sales were reported in TREB’s 28 West districts and averaged $362,272; 1,529 sales were reported in the 14 Central districts and averaged $519,841; 1,354 sales were reported in the 23 North districts and averaged $417,967; and 1,705 sales were reported in TREB’s 21 East districts and averaged $311,738.

NEIGHBOURHOOD CORNER

Orangeville

In the first 11 months of 2007, the town of Orangeville has experienced 679 sales, up 21 per cent over the same time-frame in 2006. The average price is $282,313, up eight per cent over the $261,234 recorded to November of last year. Detached homes formed the bulk of sales in Orangeville (488), and averaged $314,648. This is up seven per cent over last year.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rajeev Narula, Broker, REALTOR®
ACE TEAM REALTY INC., Brokerage
10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Suite 704
(Opp Square One - HWY10/403)
Mississauga, ON L5R 3K6
Bus: 1-888-355-3155 Ext. 300
Fax: 1-888-443-3155
Email:
Web: http://www.RAJEEV.ca" rel="nofollow">LINK

2007 is gone and here are few thoughts that I was reading all over media from so called experts, CREB( Calgary real estate board), EREB(Edmonton Real Estate Board), realtors, brokers.

1. in 2007, sales have definitely held steady. In my opinion this can only point to two things; consumer confidence and stability in the market place. Calgarians continue to have confidence in our economy and real estate market”, remarked CREB® President, Ron Stanners.
2. House price will go 40% high in 2008
3. It's time to buy and call your realtor today otherwise you will miss the boat and spring will get crazy
4. We are still cheaper than Vancouver, Hong Kong, London, New York so buy 500K shoe box condo.
5. Experts can only help you to meet your dream house/demand
6. Migrant worker will come in spring/summer and will buy property in AB because they don't like AB cold.

Here is few Q from these experts:

1. There is no comments from experts why price going down from last 6 months even oil price is so high, fundamental are so strong, unemployment is very low?
2. All migrant workers are rich and they will buy 400K homes then start working. Right?
2. Sing Louie from CMHC has predicted that houses will go to $550K this year......but we are currently at $445K....a 12% drop in 6 months from the May 2007 high of $505K.Lot of new construction are coming, lowest migration in AB in last quarter, prices are going down, pile of inventory.
4. Why should someone buy today when we have 6 months of price decreases under our belt.....which is a 12.3 % drop in values representing roughly $60,000 of equity ?
5.Why should someone buy today when you can rent for 1/3 the price of buying ?
6. Why should someone buy today when you can save the difference between renting /buying and can buy after few months or a year may be?
7. What face experts show to their friends/families who bought in May/June of 2006 and paid premium price and most of them cannot save $50K in 6-7 months but lost it?
8. Why should I trust experts/CHMC/CREB/EREB/NAR companies that has more of a vested interest than you or I ? They cannot predict right what will happen in next 3 months but street homeless person can predict better.
9. What magic will happen in spring that experts/lot of sellers are waiting? Don’t have logic of weather pls.

Again the so called real estate experts trying to make you buy your starter home - how long can you sustain your boom by pressure selling to new immigrants?

Hey experts, how many of you predicted that the market will lose 15% value from July 2007 to December 2007? On the contrary, you all said "July is the best time to buy - price can only go up! Buy now or you will miss the boat...".

This is for Toronto and its Neighbourhood ONLY and definitely not AB.


Healthy December Sales = Best Year Ever
January 7, 2008 -- A healthy 4,646 sales in December propelled 2007 sales to a record setting 93,193 sales, TREB President Maureen O'Neill announced today. "Year-end sales are up 12 per cent over last year and up 11 per cent over the 84,145 recorded during 2005, the Toronto market's previous best-ever annual performance."

On a year-over-year basis, prices rose seven per cent to $376,236 from last year's $351,941. The annual time-on-market figure stood at 32 days versus 2006's figure of 34 days, meaning that over the course of the past two years it has taken homes within the GTA barely a month to sell on average.

Breaking down the total, 1,756 sales were reported in TREB’s 28 West districts and averaged $357,711; 1,057 sales were reported in the 14 Central districts and averaged $531,366; 771 sales were reported in the 23 North districts and averaged $420,508; and 1,062 sales were reported in TREB’s 21 East districts and averaged $302,113.

NEIGHBOURHOOD CORNER

City of Toronto

The City of Toronto (E-1 to E-11, W-1 to W-10, and C-1 to C-15) recorded 39,052 sales in 2007, up 13 per cent over the 34,404 recorded in the previous year. Prices averaged $415,041, up 10 per cent over 2006.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rajeev Narula, Broker, REALTOR®
ACE TEAM REALTY INC., Brokerage
10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Suite 704
(Opp Square One - HWY10/403)
Mississauga, ON L5R 3K6
Bus: 1-888-355-3155 Ext. 300
Fax: 1-888-443-3155
Email:
Web: http://www.RAJEEV.ca" rel="nofollow">LINK

Here is the report released by Royal LePage on Dec 17th, 2007.

Canada's House prices forecast to rise by 3.5 per cent in 2008; activity to moderate
- Solid economic fundamentals should allow Canada's residential real
estate market to chart its own course and maintain its buoyancy
throughout 2008 -

TORONTO, Dec. 17 /CNW/ - After experiencing an exceptional year
characterized by strong average house price appreciation and record breaking
unit sales, the momentum from 2007 is anticipated to carry over and position
Canada's real estate market for steady, yet moderate growth in 2008, according to the Royal LePage 2008 Market Survey Forecast released today.
Nationally, average house prices are forecast to rise by 3.5 per cent to
$317,288 in 2008, while transactions are projected to fall slightly from this
year's record high unit sales to 500,927 (-4.0 %) unit sales in 2008. Despite
the year-over-year reduction in unit sales, the number of homes trading hands
in 2008 is expected to remain higher than in all years prior to 2007.
"Canada's housing market in 2008 should continue to thrive on a balanced
diet of strong economic fundamentals, including high levels of employment,
resilient consumer confidence, modest levels of inflation and the relatively
low cost of borrowing money," said Phil Soper, president and chief executive
of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. "Canada is currently enjoying one of the
longest housing market expansions in history; however, as we move into 2008 it
is anticipated that slowly eroding affordability will cause demand to ease,
allowing the market to move toward balanced conditions, with lower levels of
price appreciation, and fewer homes trading hands."
With the most affordable major market homes in Canada, residents of
Regina and Winnipeg are forecast to drive the greatest increases in house
prices in 2008, as job opportunities and in-migration continue to soar in each
city. While Calgary and Edmonton will continue to boast healthy economies and
high levels of home sale activity, the excessively fast run-up of home values
in 2006 and the first half of 2007 priced people out of the market, causing
inventory levels to rise late in the year. Alberta home price increases will
be much more moderate in 2008 as the regional market continues to adjust to
the new house value reality.
With the country's highest home prices, Vancouver's steadfast market will
continue to expand on the back of a strong provincial economy. As the city
readies itself for the 2010 Olympic Games, there will be an abundance of new
jobs created.
Ontario and Quebec markets are anticipated to maintain their relative
strength and vibrancy throughout next year, weathering stormy financial
markets and adjusting well to the high value of the Canadian dollar. The
services based industries that have become the backbone of the Toronto and
Montreal economies have tolerated the rise of Canada's dollar to parity very
well, despite increasingly price competitive offering from overseas markets.
In Atlantic Canada, a slight depletion of inventory coupled with high
immigration levels will see the housing market growing at a strong and steady
pace - Halifax is expected to have higher than national average growth in
2008.
The frenzied pace of price inflation that has characterized the real
estate market over the past two years in the resource rich west were
unsustainable and should ease substantially in 2008. In Central Canada, price
increases peaked in late 2005, and have been moderating since.
From coast-to-coast, the homebuyer demographic is anticipated to swell
with first-time purchasers, as many flock to take advantage of recently
reduced lending rates, longer amortization periods and the resultant
manageable mortgage payments.
Added Soper: "The year ahead presents opportunities for those people who
have shied away from the frenetic real estate market of the past few years,
with its bidding wars and unconditional offers; while prices should continue
to rise, they are expected to do so at a more reasonable pace. Canada's
economy is strong, and the desire for home ownership remains a vibrant and
attainable goal - real estate remains a solid long term investment."

<<
2008 Market Survey Forecast

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2008 2007
Market 08/07% Forecast Projected 2007/2006 2006 2005
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Halifax 6.9% $233,000 $218,000 7.3% $203,178 $189,196
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Montreal 3.5% $238,000 $230,000 6.6% $215,659 $203,720
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Ottawa 4.2% $285,000 $273,500 6.2% $257,481 $248,358
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Toronto 3.5% $388,500 $375,500 6.6% $352,388 $336,176
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winnipeg 11.4% $190,000 $170,500 12.2% $151,983 $134,028
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regina 15.4% $188,600 $163,500 24.0% $131,851 $123,600
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calgary 4.0% $429,000 $412,500 19.0% $346,675 $250,832
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edmonton 1.0% $341,000 $337,500 34.5% $250,915 $193,934
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vancouver 4.0% $587,500 $565,000 10.8% $509,876 $425,745
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CANADA 3.5% $317,228 $306,500 10.7% 276,974 249,201
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Highlight of 2008 Trends
>>

Strength of the Canadian Dollar

The position of the Canadian dollar hovering at parity will continue to
bolster the country's high consumer confidence, and is anticipated to
translate into continued growth in consumer spending. The negative impact of
the high dollar on the country's manufacturing sector for export trade will be
mostly felt in Southern Ontario and Quebec; however, both regions are
demonstrating considerable resiliency, with a concerted effort by both
governments and industry underway to improve productivity and improve
international competitiveness.

U.S. Economy

In sharp contrast to the weakening U.S. economy and deteriorating housing
market, Canada's economy and housing market continues to demonstrate staying
power. Canadian mortgage products are markedly different from those offered in
the U.S., and the sub-prime market makes up a significantly smaller portion of
the overall Canadian mortgage market. It is unlikely that the residential real
estate industry in Canada will have to endure the kind of sharp correction
underway south of the border.

Employment

Employment rates across the country are expected to continue at the
current very high levels, driven by the robust energy and general natural
resource sectors specifically, and a very healthy services economy in general.
In the year ahead, job market growth is anticipated to continue, especially in
Regina, Winnipeg and Halifax.

Interest Rates

The move by the Bank of Canada to reduce its overnight target-lending
rate by a quarter of a percent in December 2007 will bode well for first-time
buyers planning to enter the market in 2008. The relatively low current
interest rates, and the possibility that rates could fall even lower in
response to moderating inflation and lower rates in the U.S., will continue to
attract new buyers to the housing market.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rajeev Narula, Broker, REALTOR®
ACE TEAM REALTY INC., Brokerage
10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Suite 704
(Opp Square One - HWY10/403)
Mississauga, ON L5R 3K6
Bus: 1-888-355-3155 Ext. 300
Fax: 1-888-443-3155
Email:
Web: http://www.RAJEEV.ca" rel="nofollow">LINK

I don't trust in future forecast of TREB/CREB/EREB/Royal LePage/Maxell/CIR or any other board who holds their interest only when house price go up and there is massive sell.

Very soon you will see following statement from experts:
"Calgary or whole AB is over-rated and overpriced so their price going down makes sense but we are different because our fundamental are.... bla..bla.."


Calgary average SFH prices:
Dec 2006: $396,870
July 2007(PEAK): $505,920
Dec 2007 (year end): $444,769
source: creb.com



It sounds like same when San Diego, FL and Denver were the first hit in US housing market and experts of other part of country was saying it but after few months all the US states start feeling that so called balance market:
"San Diego, FL and Denver are over-rated and overpriced so their price going down make sense but we are different because our fundamental are.... bla..bla.."

Wait few more months you will join our boat or expert language called correction/balance market.