Housing starts slide after record 2006

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=c3fb05d2-00ff-4d50-88bc-0ff3c0cfa864&k=97486

Housing starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area fell by nearly 21 per cent in 2007 compared with a record-breaking year in 2006 and they are forecast to drop another 18.5 per cent this year.
The biggest decline was felt in the single-detached home market, where starts dropped by 25.8 per cent -- 7,777 last year and 10,482 in 2006.

"Single-detached starts have been lower for each and every month in 2007 compared to the same month a year earlier," said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for CMHC. "A high level of supply in the resale market has been competing with new home sales and this will likely continue into 2008."

Louie said the forecast for overall housing starts this year is for a drop of 18.5 per cent, to 11,000 units. That consists of a 17.7 per cent decline in the single-detached market (6,400 units) and a 19.7 per cent drop in the multi-family sector (4,600).

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It took 6 months to understand Lai Sing Louie about Calgary price drop. If he is saying 18% then we can take it atleast 25% remember still he is an expert.

Nice posting by someone in Calgary newspaper:

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I'm in the same boat as you and I'll be waiting maybe 2-3years and see how the market plays out. It's always good to be patient because the condo/house you are going to buy will be a lifetime decision that will affect your financially down the road.

In addition, the longer you wait, the MORE MONEY YOU CAN SAVE AND INVEST. When it comes time to buy, you'll easily have the required (or close to) 25% downpayment and normal mortgage of 25 years.

Anything outside a 25 yr mortgage, realistically cannot afford a property or that property is not for you.

You'll thank yourself when your mortgage payments are far less each month than if you would have bought today. And you'll be able to buy a better + bigger property down the line.

Listen to your intuition before listen to experts, realtors, mortgage brokers

It's your money and waiting to buy right now is the best option.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=26c5f748-87f6-461f-b575-65cd8fa3bffc&k=42233&p=2

One more so called expert in town:


Q: Will 2008 be a buyer's or seller's market?
A: It's going to be a great market for sellers and buyers. In my opinion, a balanced market is a good market for both the sellers and the buyers. When we have a seller's market, they're happy, but the buyers are not happy because prices are going crazy. That's not good for the economy. That's not good for anybody in general because those sellers become buyers.
The buyers aren't happy because they can't find the product. It's not an issue of price. It's an issue of product.

Q: What is your advice to buyers in this market?
A: Buy as soon as possible. Buy now.
From the buying perspective, there's no question in my mind that 2008 is going to be an excellent year and I believe that the prices will increase. So buy now while there's selection.

Q: What is your advice to sellers in this market?
A: Sell now. The reason for that is because we've got product.
If you're selling and you're moving for a reason, there's product . . .
It's a good solid economy. We've got good employment. All the economic indicators are good for this time window.

You're selling for a reason and whatever that reason is, then you need to buy. Right now, there's selection, which gives you the opportunity to find the real dream home. What's the next step? That's what everybody wants. So that's why you should sell now. It shouldn't be just on the money side.
There's great values in the home, the economy is good, you're selling now because there's a reason to sell.

Q: Is housing still affordable for Calgarians?
A: I believe it is. We're a city of a million people. Our prices are not going to be indicative of a country town, a village, of 100 homes. And we're a prosperous community which attracts business from all over the world. So prices are relative to that type of city environment.

Q: What has been the biggest change in the real estate industry over the span of your career?
A: We went from blackboards to computers. . . .
Is it better for consumers? Absolutely. Now with the technologies, we can bring more information to our clients to help them make an informed decision and that's our job. Our job is to fill the wish list of our clients in respect to the type of home they want with the amenities they want. The tools allow us to do that. Where are we going? We're moving down the track toward bigger and better technology. We're on the cusp on going more electronic.

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Is it a bad thing to compare sales to the last 7 years? We all agree that the run up of prices and sales the last couple years was not sustainable. Experts usually use past stats to compare todays market. Of course, they will always put a positive spin on it. They have to, there are 5200 plus realtors in Calgary.

Optimists will say a return to pre2006 sales levels are signs of a healthly market.
Pessimists will say a return to pre2006 sales are a sign of worse things to come.

Some experts are comparing the DOT com bubble to this one.... and for them, therein lies the rationale why AB will not be affected.

The DOT com thing was so far out there that it is no wonder AB was largely unaffected. What staples did it embroil? Did car sales dip? Was oil over-inflated? Did housing have a bubble?

This time, we have major economic fundamentals at risk.... OIL, GOLD, HOUSING, FINANCIAL INSTITUIONS, etc... The US gov't is trying like hell , lowering the value of money (interest) while inflation sits at the door. This is so 1982 deja-vu it's scary. We are headed for a recession. Canada will be affected.