The Greaterfool has lost its credibility in early 2010 itself. I just touch it for its amusing pictures. Real estate is something which never keeps its pace in one direction, so do the economy of USA. Both go in cycle. Garth's statements are something that aren't serious.

If my predictions are true, the price will stabilize first, more listing will slowly lead further price reduction, (note that the number investment homes here are way too less compared what we saw in USA) further correction will be on its way but I am positive the Fed will again intervene and bring up measure to prevent the slide such as a new immigration queue or a reform that would enable already aspiring foreigners to pursue (China / India / Middle east and now europe, not to rule out Americans to some extent), the only difference with the past crash and now is the Interest rate which doesn't seem to take off in near future substantially. My guess is the Fed is using better Reporting tools to watch and act. Comparing US Real estate may not be quite an apt thing as the boom was pretty much every where there unlike ours where the epicenter was either GTA or Van (Calgary went bust in 2008 itself after the blow to the oil price).

Do you acknowledge that the very recent correction is Fed initiated ?

The point, I am trying to make is the housing is expected to go through a big correction but a crash is unlikely given the experience.

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The cowards never started,
The weak died on the way,
Only the strong arrived.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yK1i9cLAMM

The Greaterfool has lost its credibility in early 2010 itself. I just touch it for its amusing pictures. Real estate is something which never keeps its pace in one direction, so do the economy of USA. Both go in cycle. Garth's statements are something that aren't serious.

If my predictions are true, the price will stabilize first, more listing will slowly cost price reduction, further correction will be on its way but I am positive the Fed will again intervene and bring up measure to prevent the slide such as a new immigration queue or a reform that would enable already aspiring foreigners to pursue (China / India / Middle east and now europe, not to rule out Americans to some extent), the only difference with the past crash and now is the Interest rate which doesn't seem to take off in near future substantially. My guess is the Fed is using better Reporting tools to watch and act. Comparing US Real estate may not be quite an apt thing as the boom was pretty much every where there unlike ours where the epicenter was either GTA or Van (Calgary went bust in 2008 itself after the blow to the oil price).

Do you acknowledge that the very recent correction is Fed initiated ?

The point, I am trying to make is the housing is expected to go through a big correction (20% - 25% in GTA over 5 years wouldn't surprise me) but a crash is unlikely given the experience.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
The cowards never started,
The weak died on the way,
Only the strong arrived.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yK1i9cLAMM

Very well said JRF...Moreover the house that was sold 17% below the listing price, I am very sure that the seller still would have made the profit of at least 10 to 12% (after all the expenses). Though this does not justify investing in housing but as you said all the markets go thru the cycle.

At this point of time, the whole Canada is vulnerable If
1) Housing stumbles,
2) Oil stumbles
3) Gold Stumbles
5) CAD stumbles
5) Doomsday Arrives
6) Anna Hazare succeeds in his fast

If you think of it, why this statement so late? Govt, banks, builders, homebuyers here knew this since last couple of years. Like Eurozone meltdown fears, people have taken a note of this news but alarmed? I think not anymore. Govt, media, banks overall did a good job educating people and made them aware of risks. People know the risks and taking more educated approach than just reckless decisions. The demand for houses is still strong and with no change in policy as far as rates are concerned, this will remain strong. I think probably this is the first time people are assured of lower rates for longer period of time. It is like having crystal ball in your hand. for next 2 years rates will not rise, if they do, it will not be very significant. I am not sure if we ever had this kind of information before. ( I know now you will point to south).

Quote:

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Originally posted by ashedfc

Canada banks seen by S&P as vulnerable if housing stumbles
(as of now they are still using word "if", but that will change too)

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People on this board have been crying hoarse for the last couple of years that the doomsday is approaching, but nothing alike happened so far. I have only seen the property prices rising in all the neighbourhoods, suburbs, Provinces, and cities. How and when the market stumbles, it will be seen. But, at least we are not immune like the Southerners (US) who weren't even alarmed of the bust.

If at all, it will be a slowdown and a little correction. I don't think a deep fall will happen. There are people who were predicting 2012 to be the dooms year, but it's half gone and haven't put a significant dent in the bigger markets. I think they will now come out and declare 2013 to go down. Another year, another prediction (bust).

Quote:

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Originally posted by ashedfc

believe me speculation is still rampant. In high value houses, movement has started becoming very slow..

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