web2000   
Member since: May 06
Posts: 849
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 23-02-12 15:47:32

Quote:
Originally posted by bhootnath

Quote:
Originally posted by web2000

Wait for the correction, it will definitely happen.




Are you freaking kidding ...Nothing is definite, except for death :p . People who waited for correction to happen for last 2-5 years already doomed. Lets say 3 years back based on some of the forum here with charts and stats, you put off a decision to buy a house "waiting for THE correction". Houses already appreciated 30% or more. Now even if correction occurs lets say by 20%, you will still be paying 10% more for the same house (3yr older though) and then 3 years of rent, down the drain.....
Go ahead wait for THE correction..yeah someday it may happen..may be only for a day...
man...you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.



Nothing is definite and no one can see the future. You are calculating by taking a small period(2-5 yrs). First of all you need to know that owning an overpriced house can also put you in debt. It is no more different from any other type of investment. Let us go by your example,

Case-1
If I buy a house today and it does not appreciate at all for next 5 years, then at the end I will be losing a significant amount.

Case-2
If I buy a house today and it keeps appreciating for next 5 years, then I will be a winner. It is almost a decade that property is appreciating but this trend will not last long. This case is going to be much risky.

Case-3
If I buy a house today and it depreciates in next 5 years, then I will be the biggest loser.

There are still 2 cases above where I can win if I wait.



bhootnath   
Member since: Mar 11
Posts: 969
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 23-02-12 18:12:37

Good luck waiting web2000. Just curious since how long have been waiting for market to correct?



infocan   
Member since: Sep 03
Posts: 281
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 23-02-12 20:47:18

i bought a house in England in 2007. I have to sell it in 2010 as was moving to canada. If I had decided to keep my self to be on rent in england for that period time on similar house . I would have 80,000 CAD more in my hand. So basically I make loss when calculating the total cost of less value house selling, laywer fee,house maintance . insurnce cost. So loss and gain happends when person make a exit

Then in dec 2010I book a new detach house in canada. The booking rate of same house is 70,000 CAD more at present . So I have some feel good factor. But people must know loss and gain happens when people try to make exit. And loss is very painful when it happens


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infocan


rahul_singh23   
Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 24-02-12 12:17:13

Canada's housing bubble: This time is not different

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/george-athanassakos/canadas-housing-bubble-this-time-is-not-different/article2347630/page1/

Bubbles are hard to see in advance and even harder to know when they will burst. No matter how high prices go, there are always analysts who try to justify them by arguing that “this time things are different”. This was the case during the dot com bubble in late 1990s and this is what has been happening nowadays with the housing bubble in Canada.

I have heard many arguments of why this time it is different. Toronto, for example, is becoming New York or London and current prices are thus justified. Bank economists are also justifying current house prices with convoluted explanations arguing that this time things are different ignoring multiple signals of overvaluation that have worked very well historically and in other environments.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Attack the logic:

1. Why do Canadian Govt. and BOC feel so worried about Canadian personal debt (highest in western world) and CMHC future?

Bank of Canada issues fresh warning on debt (
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-issues-fresh-warning-on-debt/article2347476/)

2. Why did same logic (we are different) did not work in US and EU countries? Remember very few US states allows walk away.

3. How do you see effect of Canadian sub-prime (0/40,5/35, super low interest rates, 5/30, 5% cash back) when majority of first time buyers are in sub-prime and barely saving anything?

4. What do you think after 5 years when bank figures out there are lot of sub-prime owners have mortgage more than home value and no saving for pay difference?

5. Do you think rent/own (mortgage interest, lost opportunity of down payment, taxes, fees, maintenance, insurance) ratio matters?

6. Does negative equity matter and affect on RE market ?

Kelowna seems Canadian RE FL. Our RE industry is selling people would pay honestly even in negative equity because they are looking long term. Here you go..

Home foreclosures skyrocket in Kelowna
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/02/15/bc-okanagan-home-foreclosures.html

"People weren't able to achieve their goals in doing this and so they quit making payments," he said.



BlueLobster   
Member since: Oct 02
Posts: 3409
Location: Mississauga

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 25-02-12 16:41:03

Weren't you posting articles like these 6-7 yrs. back claiming the bubble is going to burst? Have you been renting all along? When will this bubble burst?


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Are you there?


BlueLobster   
Member since: Oct 02
Posts: 3409
Location: Mississauga

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 25-02-12 22:28:58

Quote:
Originally posted by ashedfc

Quote:
Originally posted by BlueLobster
Weren't you posting articles like these 6-7 yrs. back claiming the bubble is going to burst? Have you been renting all along? When will this bubble burst?


KEEP PATIENCE, these things take time. Its hard to predict a particular date..




Interesting choice of words there. Nobody waits patiently for a recession or a depression. They brace themselves for it. i.e. Unless you have a vested interest in it.

Maybe the market will crash someday. And yeah, it is probably a bit inflated right now. Point is 5 yrs. back, people were saying the exact same thing. if I had waited and not bought my house, I would be regretting that today.

To each his "own" though (pun intended)...












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Are you there?


rahul_singh23   
Member since: Apr 05
Posts: 1014
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 26-02-12 00:27:52


From:http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/02/24/7342/#comments
Most people have an insane fear of losing money while being fearless about debt.

Quote:
Originally posted by BlueLobster
Weren't you posting articles like these 6-7 yrs. back claiming the bubble is going to burst? Have you been renting all along? When will this bubble burst?


Quote:
Originally posted by ashedfc
KEEP PATIENCE, these things take time. Its hard to predict a particular date..



I moved from US to Calgary in 2005-06 after selling in US and price were already in bubble territory in Western Canada. Today's RE price is 2004-2005 level in Calgary and other western Canadian cities and most of first time buyers are in negativity equity. Renting the same condo in 1000 less than owning and not taking negative equity hit is not a bad idea .
I moved to US again with just a month notice. I can buy same house in US what I paid in 2002.

Quote:
Originally posted by BlueLobster
Interesting choice of words there. Nobody waits patiently for a recession or a depression. They brace themselves for it. i.e. Unless you have a vested interest in it.



RE takes long time to bust because most of the people tries all the options to hold RE till they can not sustain further. There is always a time to make money in bubble or bust cycle if buy and sell at right time. There is some time just better not to do anything.

Paying overprice (stock/RE/anything) at bubble and holding in bust and pretending that there is no loss because we are not selling and waiting for another bubble does not work for most of the people. Because most of the people are living paycheck to paycheck and no saving. They have little skin in the game ( 5%-10% down payment) means for day one it's negative equity if they sell on same price and RE investors stop paying soon ( like Kelwona) if there is no returns. This leads to RE bust.

Woman, Economy and money behave same way all over the world.




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