Canadian $ hits almost 75 cents against USD!!!!!!


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vivek901   
Member since: Nov 08
Posts: 220
Location: Canada

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 03-08-15 23:13:10

Canadian $ hits 75 cents...technically it should make our exports attractive which isnt the case and our imports are getting expensive.

The prediction is for US rate hike and CAD rate drop and first time they are going in opposite directions which is going to throw loonie further down..prediction for 60 cents - lesser..

Is it seriously bad times for us..?? This seems to be more scary than 2009 recession.



tamilkuravan   
Member since: Jun 05
Posts: 5775
Location: God's own country

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 04-08-15 02:54:19

I used to live in a time (2002) when CAD was 59 cents and I made the huge mistake of converting around 4000 CAD into USD then.

In the 2009 recession, Oil price was high. Now Oil price is damn low but the conservatives have said that they will balance the budget.

Yes. Exports are attractive (barring oil). We need to see how much are other exports stack up instead of oil.

In 2002, Factory jobs were many. Mainly for the US markets. I used to work in factories where they made heavy harpic / window cleaning bottles to be sent to the US by trucks. Since the CAD was at 60 cents, it made profit for them (USA). Factory jobs were in an abundance then. You register today and the same day, you are sent to packaging industry (for min. wage).

I guess those times will be back again.

Murali


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vivek901   
Member since: Nov 08
Posts: 220
Location: Canada

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 04-08-15 11:20:33

The situation is different this time around, as the most of the manufacturers who went away from Canada are not ready to do capital investments again. The job market pretty much tells that. Also the GDP has contracted for past 2-3 months. The federal budgets are in deficit. The consumer debt is at a all time high. So don't know what the coming months have in store.



febpreet   
Member since: Jan 07
Posts: 3252
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 04-08-15 11:57:41

I agree. I think we should forget about Manufacturing altogether. It's not coming back to Canada. Period. China is where the action is, even if CAD goes down to .50. China is producing the goods at a much much much lower cost, so having the proximity advantage doesn't really count here. We haven't seen a slight growth in manufacturing since the oil's doom for the past couple of months. This should be an indication.

However, there's still a ray of light. Canada has some tremendous potential in the other niche areas, and they should really focus on the world market (esp. Asia):

1. Tourism: It's in abundance, especially BC, Alberta, and Ontario. Promote it to the max. the world over.
2. Lumber Exports to Asia.
3. Natural Gas Exports.
4. Oil exports (Yes, we still have it).
5. Science and Technology: UBC, UofT still ranks among the best of the schools. Use the talent.
6. Bombardier: High Class train coaches, and commercial Jet exports. One of the top Aviation and Aerospace export companies.
7. Nuclear Energy (CANDU) exports: India needs it. I am sure other Asian (safe) countries do as well.
8. Wine Exports (BC has the top of the line wineries, only next to the California).
9. Education: Attract more and more post secondary 'quality' students from all over the world.
10. Health: I know it's a burning topic, but with quality hopitals, staff, and equipments, we can attract mighty and wealthy for the treatment and charge them the top dollar.
11. Hollywood: With lower dollar BC has already seen the growth in the film business during the last few months. While we are at it, Govt. should promote it again the world over so the Chinese and Bollywood take note of the beauty and tax credit Canada provides.
12. Farming: Commodities should take the cake - Wheat (Sask and Manitoba), Blueberries (BC) for instance.

I think, the sooner we get out of American cocoon and adapt to Asia, the better would it be for Canada as a whole. Create as many Trade Missions to Asia and South America as possible, and attract investment. Canadian Telecom still have a lot of space for foreign players.

I am not sure what's gonna happen in the coming months, but one thing's sure - Interest rates will keep going down and will remain intact until the end of 2017. Despite of the oil hitting low, we won't see any difference on the pumps due to the soaring USD.

Last but not the least, as TK puts it, I don't see much impact to the Tech and Finance sector in the short/long run. Tech jobs have grown in BC tremendously and Ontario due to the low dollar and less starting pay for fresh Graduates as compared to the one in Silicon Valley, Seattle, NY, etc.

Housing might grow a bit as well due to the lower interest rates, but remains to be seen as to how long.

All in all, noone knows anything, except for the wild guesses. I for one, am going to invest in the USD for a long term investment. Barring a few hiccups (dot com, 9/11, 2008), USD has been having a great potential in the long run.





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