From 2006 onwards I was repeatedly commenting that this construction economy in Dubai is bound to fail and it failed as I expected. Given their geographical location there is no uniqueness to attract such a population they were expecting.

Even here, I see the houses around my place have appreciated since 2007. It certainly signals a warning. The cost of the single family house in GTA is now way beyond average household income (take the household also into account and ever increasing cost of living including insurance). There will be a correction here but I don't expect to the level of crash. I at least expect the house price to touch 2006 level sometime in 2012.

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Originally posted by tamilkuravan

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Originally posted by JRF

Oh.. boy, Oh boy....

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Originally posted by tamilkuravan
IMHO, I donot think that Dubai's boom will ever go down. I have heard that 30 % of construction cranes in the world are in Dubai. Even my Italian employers sons are waiting to go and work or atleast visit Dubai (they are 18-19 years old and are attending U of T). Yes. The city is getting crowded, Roads are getting jammed, housing spaces are egtting costlier but still their economy is diversified and geared to get better. Also UAE (esp. Dubai) is the only place in the middle east , which is not totally dependant on oil for their economy (Sauid Arabia OTOH is fully dependant on Oil for its economy). By having a cosmoolitan place in the middle east, Many multi national companies operate from there thus being a cultural melting point in the middle east.
TK A

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Well, The date stamp for that quote was 18-03-07. The world is a much different place now than it was before (Same as Sept/01). I am sure that any reasonable minded person who really knew about the recession of 08-09, would have concluded that the next hit would be Dubai. Of course, they could have toned down the pace but they did not. A person (of Architectural background) who used to get AED 5000 a month in 06/07 suddently saw his salary shoot up to 20K to 25K a month + 10K a month for housing. This can simply be not sustainable esp. since USA is in deep deep recession. Of course, the sheikh should have been content with some building and possibly looked to be a manufacturer / service industry base (since Dubai has all the infrastructure and can recruit labourers for cheap price and the Gulf is strategically located close to Europe) but he has chosen not to.
The same went for Oil. It started out in $40 and went up to $ 147. I predicted that it will fall down and yes it did. It came down to $40 before moving up again. may be if I was asked the same question in end of 08/begining of 09, I would have predicted the bust.

Peace by a PD

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The cowards never started,
The weak died on the way,
Only the strong arrived.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yK1i9cLAMM