Will AB be new Miami or Las Vegas of Canadian RE crash? Calgary/Edmonton is first hard hit and soon other cities will feel same. We can see 50K-70K prices down in last 7-8 months.

Yes RE is local everywhere but recession, bubble or crash are not local.
Only difference it makes let say 30% at one part of city and 20% and other part.



Edmonton:
Data Last Updated March 31, 2008, 9:07 am
Total Properties 12701 - Res 6295 - Condo - 3276 Acreage - 1185
Comfree say they have 30% of Edmontons listings so add another 4000+ listings.
Total Edmonton listing: 17,000 app.

Calgary:
Data Last Updated March 31, 2008, 8:27 am
Total Properties 13581 - Res 8591 - Condo - 3604 Acreage - 831
welist have around more than 30% listing too.
Total Calgary listing around: 18,000 approx.

This is the highest listing in last 10 years for both the cities. These numbers do not include new homes that will be coming soon in next 6-12 months. There will be around 8,000 new homes in Calgary.

This weekend I drove West of SW area. There are tons of house under construction and a lot of them (which did not complete yet) have sale sign already. Builders are getting competition with sellers on same street so you can see tons of advertisement from builder about 30k-80k price cut/upgrade in new homes and ready to take possession.

Question: Why first time buyers will jump in panic train if they can wait and enjoy the show without loosing $$?
Question: Not sure how experts will be going to play cards especially with first time buyers?

A Calgary home has tripled in the last 5 years amid the shortage of houses in Calgary. Would you expect that this home will triple in value again in the next 5 years?

I don't think so.

If Calgary continues to grow at somewhat slower pace, and home builders continue building more and more homes to catch up with their projected demand, the homes will not appreciate the way they did in the past. With so much over supply of homes, prices may plunge.

Its about supply and demand. Real estate markets are cyclical, so all patterns eventually reverse. There may be pockets (local) in every City/Town where the markets don't change much, they might slow down a bit.

It is not an issue for those who buy with enough downpayment, as long as one's monthly costs (less monthly principal recapture) is more or less equal to one's rental payment.

The latest MLS numbers as per Calgary real estate report, the average sale price for a single family home in Calgary-metro in March, 2008 was $474,513. That is a 1.1 per cent decrease from March, 2007.

With one in five homes selling in Calgary market (buyer's market, thank God!), this might be a good time to buy a home.

Or, if you think (I am not an expert on Calgary market place) that Calgary's real estate plunge is imminent, it may make sense to wait for some more time, and buy when the dust settles down.

This is my opinion.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Amit Kalia, Broker, REALTOR®
RE/MAX Real Estate Centre., Brokerage
independently owned & operated
100 City Centre Dr, Unit 1-702
Mississauga, ON L5B 2C9
Phone No.: 905-339-5111
Website: https://www.realestate-ontario.com/
Condo Blog: https://condopundit.com/blog/

Oh yes there is lot of noise by experts/Calgary Real Estate Board as its buyers market. Right time to buy..bla..bla. Everyone can understand their interest and people don't take their advice seriously when price start going down.

I think it's not the right time for first time buyer as price going down everyday.
Price increase was happening for 4-5 yrs non-stop so price will not reach significant down in few months as it may take at least 1.5 yrs or more to reach quite low/bottom. Soon we will see situation like a lot of them own more than their home value is and that is start of "Buyer's Market". This is also a RE cycle.

I am still thinking where are the fundamentals that was given by CREB in last many years…. as oil price is still high, there is shortage of workers, migration is +ve, we are getting out of space, price out forever. I remember same people were laughing on me with logic of these fundamentals and now they are advising me to wait more as price will go down more as there are so many homes on sale in their communities.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=c2fa15ea-05be-4994-a238-973860b23e35

"With that surplus in inventory, what we're seeing here is roughly one in five of the homes are selling," said Jensen. "The days of the sellers in the last couple of crazy market years just naming their price and throwing their house on without presenting their house correctly, those days are done. And I think we have to come to reality.

HelloG,

Wait and watch appears to be prudent at this time in light of high historical valuations and risks.

It is easier to say what will happen but very hard to say when it will happen!

Dear CDs on this thread,

Read this link Sales might have dropped little more than 22%

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/410042

I would like to share an experience I recently had selling my home in Winnipeg, MB. My house was listed for $159,900…….double what I paid 4 years ago. The agents had one open house and then offers were accepted the following night. There were only two offers and both were well under list. My agent told me I should expect more then my list so when I saw this I was surprised but then he told me not to worry. I could not believe what happened next. All three agents, (listing agent and 2 selling agents) sat at my kitchen table and one at a time phoned each buyer with some bad news. The buyers where told that if they wanted the property they would have to up their bid…..in other words they would have to wildly over bid for my home. The scenario was repeated to each buyer back and forth until one buyer finally offered $200,000 for an 800sqft bungalow. I was amazed and shocked……very happy to had made that much money but a feeling of guilt. How can this be legal??????? I watched these agents bamboozle these two buyers until one was willing to pay way to much for my home…….oh well young uneducated buyers seem to rule the market. As for me, I paid off my tiny mortgage and will be buying a brand new house just as soon as the market crashes…….maybe I’ll buy two houses.

There is only 1 factor that determines the cost of housing in the World including Canada and that is the affordability index. Simply put…..Canadians can not and will never be able to afford current house prices. The housing crash in the US was not because of lending habits, it was a housing bubble. Housing prices appreciated way to fast and way to high…that’s called a bubble and eventually it bursts. It happens all around the globe and to think it won’t happen in Canada is being ignorant. It doesn’t matter how you borrow the money if you can’t afford to pay it back. Canadian banks now offer 40, 50, 60 year mortgages……that should be your first clue. If you bought a house in Canada in the last 5 years…..you will soon have a mortgage double the value of your home. HaHa