Is it all over for the India?
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Posted on: 31-05-12 16:12:37
On the contrary its US who no longer has the same position it had in yester decades because of its sole super power status intoxicated misadventures . They say there s huge unemplyment in the US at present .
Hard to predict what happens 20 years hence ... who knows the tables may be overturned ...
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Fido.
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Originally posted by Fido
Are you trying to say that India has gone down or stayed the same infrastructurally during the last 20 yrs ..... Now thats ridiculous .
I have been to Delhi 20 years back and now and any one who has been there during these years or visited the place in the mean time can vouch by the fact that in 1990s the pollution scenario in Delhi was a constant smog exisiting in the sky ... And with the Govt's intervention not only have the roads infrastructure grown manifold but with measures like CNG transportation and Metro , pollution has come down and certainly not grown with the same pace ....
Despite the big infrastructure leap, Delhi is in mess currently. Not talking about 20 years ago, but in 2004 when I used to drive to work, I hardly came across any traffic woes and jams. Compare it with the present scenario, when there's even a stand still traffic on your so-called flyovers and the 6-7 lane freeways.
Talk to any Delhite (including me) and they will certainly vouch for what I said above.
Malls are mushrooming, for sure; and pollution has come down, which I must admit.
You got your answer from two folks who are from Delhi. The only thing I'll add is that Delhi isn't India's infrastructure barometer anyways. Go to smaller tier cities and see the mass traffic chaos yourself. No further infrastructure proof required.
You can consider USSR as a super-power, the fact is when it fell, it revealed to the whole world that it was a house of cards. It was about as close to the "Emperor has no clothes" as you can get for a country. It never really led the world in anything except maybe dolls inside other dolls. I agree China is not the same, but it is far from a true world leader except for that "projection" thing.
US is in decline, no doubt, but the notion that somehow India/China will take over is highly unlikely, if not impossible. I've been hearing about the collapse of the US dollar against gold/Euro etc. for a few months on this very forum. What is happening today is the opposite. Personally, I think it is a good thing as I'd rather have the world led by the US than China any day.
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Are you there?
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Originally posted by ashedfc
US decline is a gradual process... although very slow, its already happening in-front of our eyes (what else evidence you want..
I did say US is in decline, not sure why you think I'm asking for evidence.
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just because USDollar index is at 83 handle, & Euro plunging to recent new lows, doesn't change the reality.. once announcement of QE3 will change the whole thing upside down.. this is just temporary fear of European implosion..
Can you be a bit more specific in this? When will QE3 announcement be made and what exactly will happen to the dollar then? If there's a fear of European implosion, why is the USD rising as opposed to gold? I though you were saying in other posts that nobody wants the USD.
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"Back to the topic"
Yes, infrastructure in India needs a big push; that's probably coming very soon..
Pardon me, but that sounds very fluffy and wishful. What does "that's probably coming soon" mean anyways? What are you basing that on?
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& more or less, traffic chaos is in every major city; look at Toronto, with such a small population you have traffic gridlock.
I don't live in Delhi and have only been there once. But you've seen posts from folks from Delhi about the traffic there and I currently work with a team from there. There is NO comparison between the gridlock there and the gridlock in Toronto.
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India growth has been focused mainly on IT, Telecommunications, etc... infrastructure will also come, that's why it will take so long (2045-2050 to reach the largest GDP) not tomorrow..
Ain't gonna happen. Let's talk near term though, 2045 is too far to make any reasonable predictions.
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Are you there?
The yen did this, rupee did that and bullion went some other way. BoP may be a mess.
In the long run(even semi-long run) India is better positioned from the point of view of growth and opportunity than say US or Canada. How much of her potential(and how soon) will eventually be realised? That depends on many factors like leadership, circumstances and even some luck.
Who cares if India is a "superpower" or not? I personally prefer India NOT become a super-power and bear all the hubris that comes with it.
Even in the worst case scenario(we do have almost a worst case scenario in the form of national governance, save the ruling clans of UP and Bihar) , India seems to have some potential and a safety net from global shocks. Not saying it will get worse here in Canada, but it can-- and more likely so than in India.
The prosperity in west is built on a house of cards. The social aspects are even worse than economic factors and in the long term that is what matters. Economies fall and recover. But social cohesion can take several lifetimes to recover.
You only have to look south to see the unraveling of USA. Families destroyed, economy down the toilet, political rights/personal liberties quickly being usurped etc. This is also happening to middle class India, but to a lesser degree.
It is almost as if US is preparing for an emergency, with mass unrest and upheaval. We better not get smug and dismissive about these recent developments and expect same old, same old to continue.
It would be wiser to hedge our bets by building mobility in our lives and provide soft landing for our transition--- be it in career, living arrangements, investments etc.----should there be one.
In other words hope for the best in our present circumstances but at the same time we should be prepared to do a TK/KumarM if necessary, without having to suddenly uproot ourselves. Even better, if we could get yet another passport or location to move to.
At least we have to be open to opportunities in India, instead of reducing everything there to pollution and pack of dogs(just as we tend to reduce everything to career/money in Canada).
India is not just Delhi or Bombay. There are many , mid tiered cities that may not be glamorous, but certainly livable. I have identified at least ten towns in my neck of the woods(south Deccan) where I can easily adapt my lifestyle to.
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Originally posted by elmer fudd
In the long run(even semi-long run) India is better positioned from the point of view of growth and opportunity than say US or Canada. How much of her potential(and how soon) will eventually be realised? That depends on many factors like leadership, circumstances and even some luck.
Leadership? Non existent, unless you consider MMS or Sonia or folks in the opposition parties "leaders". That leaves circumstance and luck, neither of which you have much control over. Progress based on those is doomed to sway with the seasons.
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Who cares if India is a "superpower" or not? I personally prefer India NOT become a super-power and bear all the hubris that comes with it.
I don't either. There are however a lot of folks counting on this. What I was saying is this is not on the trajectory given the current situation there, the fundamentals are missing for true world leadership.
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Even in the worst case scenario(we do have almost a worst case scenario in the form of national governance, save the ruling clans of UP and Bihar) , India seems to have some potential and a safety net from global shocks. Not saying it will get worse here in Canada, but it can-- and more likely so than in India.
The prosperity in west is built on a house of cards. The social aspects are even worse than economic factors and in the long term that is what matters. Economies fall and recover. But social cohesion can take several lifetimes to recover.
You only have to look south to see the unraveling of USA. Families destroyed, economy down the toilet, political rights/personal liberties quickly being usurped etc. This is also happening to middle class India, but to a lesser degree.
The current economic growth in India is directly linked to this "house of cards" you mention. If it topples, the Indian economy will go with it. Secondly, if by social cohesion, you mean close-knit families, I'll agree India is better off. However if you're referring to broader social cohesion as in a community or a country (also critical for growth), India is far behind.
The US has been on the decline lately, anybody can see that. However with all the economic issues and the "usurped" liberties, the situation is still far better than in India, which, as bad as it is, keeps getting worse. You can't even begin to compare the liberties available to an individual in the states today vs. what is available to an individual in India. And there are absolutely no signs of the latter getting better.
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It is almost as if US is preparing for an emergency, with mass unrest and upheaval. We better not get smug and dismissive about these recent developments and expect same old, same old to continue.
Same old, same old likely won't continue. Mass unrest and emergencies seem equally unlikely. The truth is somewhere in the middle and what we should get ourselves used to is the instability of today, that seems likely to continue for the next few years.
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It would be wiser to hedge our bets by building mobility in our lives and provide soft landing for our transition--- be it in career, living arrangements, investments etc.----should there be one.
In other words hope for the best in our present circumstances but at the same time we should be prepared to do a TK/KumarM if necessary, without having to suddenly uproot ourselves. Even better, if we could get yet another passport or location to move to.
Prepping to suddenly uproot yourself from North America to go to India in case of emergencies etc. sounds extreme and irrational to me. There's folks who're buying underground bunkers in the states to prepare for apocalypse. That is also called "preparation", but most rational folks consider that over the top.
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At least we have to be open to opportunities in India, instead of reducing everything there to pollution and pack of dogs(just as we tend to reduce everything to career/money in Canada).
/quote]
I'm with you on that. Take it a step further and keep an open mind, period. Irrespective of country.
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India is not just Delhi or Bombay. There are many , mid tiered cities that may not be glamorous, but certainly livable. I have identified at least ten towns in my neck of the woods(south Deccan) where I can easily adapt my lifestyle to.
Good for you. Your definition of "livable" may be very different from somebody else's though.
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Are you there?
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Originally posted by BlueLobster
Personally, I think it is a good thing as I'd rather have the world led by the US than China any day.
You have been raving all along about your convoluted logic of super power definition and beating around the bush with what you personally consider as a super power ......
So you consider US to be a TRUE superpower and all the other dummies / pack of cards and no one entitled to that title ..... The world has known USSR as a super power and is recognizing China as reaching there and also India being a tremendous economic power and certainly a rising one ... so your personal thoughts draw less credence .....
And what did your superpower do ....... bomb and destroy Iraq on a pretext of WMD which were never found ...... tch tch ...... Or kill much more people in Afghanistan under its sole definition of policing ... Or amass weapons in Pakistan which have been historically used against India ..... Or develop disturbing pockets in the world Or to serve its own ulterior motives as and when it has felt the need ....
When US needed Afghanistan against the Soviets ...Mujhadeens and Haqqanis were the most holy & pious of people and now they are the worst just because they do not serve US's purpose .....So much for your definition of a super power ......
Like it or not -- USSR will go down as a super power in History for a majority of 20th century and like it or not China is emerging to be one and is most likely to be another one this century ............. away from your own concocted definition of what a super power is .....
Coming back to India and Delhi ... so you are comparing Delhi to Toronto ... traffic wise ...... hmmm ...... try pumping in Delhi's population in Toronto and despite being a rich country see the impact .....despite such a less population rush hour on 401 is a shame .... imaging what happens if the population is tenfold ......!!!!
The poplation growth of India is much higher hence there s no comparison .... and to you and others who have argued my points .......... imagine what would Delhi have been had it not upgraded all the infrastructure that I have talked about ............ I have myself seen the change in pollution and flyovers and Metro and all that has gone to great service ...... you cannot write it off .......
And despite of all this growing population and its toll on the infrastructure , increasing corruption and what not ...... India is still growing economically .... ever wondered why .... because as per your logic , it should not happen as the fundamental is not strong .... ??
Simply because they are both un related ...... economic growth.......... and internal situation of a country ....... Other wise today Canada having such a better infrastructure should have been growing much higher economy wise ..... but that s not happening .........
Indian economy will grow and so will grow the infrastructure .....
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Fido.
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