Is it all over for the India?
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Posted on: 31-05-12 11:16:30
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Originally posted by ashedfc
You are refering to all the R & D of the last 200 yrs or so..
What about the R & D before that (majority of R & D was from India).. x
This may give me a warm fuzzy feeling as someone of Indian heritage, but in material terms for future progress, it means absolutely nothing.
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Even now lot of scientists in NASA (& other places) are from India..
That's my point. They had to move from India
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We have reached (or are gradually reaching) a tipping point, where quality talent is not interested to move out of India, & this is how shift happens.
First off, this statement isn't entirely true that quality talent just isn't interested in moving out of India. Let's for a second assume that it is true though. You're still ignoring a multitude of problems that hold back growth, most prominently some of the fundamentals I pointed out earlier.
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Its always a gradual process, & takes couple of decades to shape up
Umm...I thought the couple of decades already started in the 90s, so it is a couple of decades since. If not, when will they start?
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Are you there?
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Originally posted by BlueLobster
A country in which the fundamentals deteriorate while people get richer cannot expect to lead anything. There will be pockets of progress however it will be scattered and disorganized, never complete. And when the world turns it attention to another country (Brazil for instance), things will go downhill.
China is a bit different because of their manufacturing and organization, however any notion that China will overtake the US with respect to true super-power status is pure hogwash as well. You need to be an open nation to lead the world, not the black box China is currently. Without democracy, China will at best continue the status quo.
This theory is hardly close to reality & history ... What is the internal structure of a country has little to do with what it can do internationally ... At least that s whats happening historically for the past decades ...... and still happening ..
Soviet Union was a super power for a good number of decades and dictated world happenings for quite a bit of last century despite the fact that people lived an un fulfilled life there ..... It did break down but that had more to do with Gorbachov's theory of Glasnost & Perestroika than anything else ....
China again a communist country and having a similar scenario where people lead discontended lives , are not heard and the State mows them down with its diktats may not be fundamentally correct inside but it is reaching a super power status and like it or not is ahead economically of any other nation and growing ......
India likewise will also continue to grow economically and well be a Nation to reckon with in coming decades as its external growth will be huge due to the labor advantage ...... This would have little bearing on whats happening inside ....
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Fido.
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Originally posted by Fido
This theory is hardly close to reality & history ... What is the internal structure of a country has little to do with what it can do internationally ... At least that s whats happening historically for the past decades ...... and still happening ..
Soviet Union was a super power for a good number of decades and dictated world happenings for quite a bit of last century despite the fact that people lived an un fulfilled life there ..... It did break down but that had more to do with Gorbachov's theory of Glasnost & Perestroika than anything else ....
China again a communist country and having a similar scenario where people lead discontended lives , are not heard and the State mows them down with its diktats may not be fundamentally correct inside but it is reaching a super power status and like it or not is ahead economically of any other nation and growing ......
Soviet Union collapsed like a house of cards when it opened up. The "super-power" status was more about keeping up appearances and the threat of nukes than any real progress. When history is written a few hundred years later, the mighty USSR will be more a footnote and a temporary blip on America's progress.
If you define progress as "what you can do internationally", then fine. I don't. I define progress/growth as substantial improvements in the nation's fundamentals that has a direct improvement in the lives of the people in the country. Being a superpower on the global stage while withstanding daily power cuts like a poster from India has written prior is not something I consider real progress.
China will never lead the world with its present communist system like the United States does. And it will open up one day like the USSR, just wait and watch what happens then.
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India likewise will also continue to grow economically and well be a Nation to reckon with in coming decades as its external growth will be huge due to the labor advantage ...... This would have little bearing on whats happening inside ....
I said the same thing. India will grow economically as a function of the population, however the mismanagement, corruption and lack of foresight will ensure it will never truly have complete progress.
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Originally posted by ashedfc
Quote:
Originally posted by BlueLobster
Umm...I thought the couple of decades already started in the 90s, so it is a couple of decades since. If not, when will they start?
compare the 90's India to today's India, you will get the answer..
the speed & magnitude of development (is the main factor which will continue going forward) taking India to worlds largest GDP
Again, you're only focusing on monetary progress. Like I said earlier, this is only one part of the equation and fleeting. Downturns like the one you're seeing now will ensure India will always be a "country with potential", rather than a country that realized its full potential. And whether you like it or not, the resource crunch in the next 20 years will be a huge strain on an already messed up infrastructure and further deteriorate the situation there if something is now done now.
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueLobster
Soviet Union collapsed like a house of cards when it opened up. The "super-power" status was more about keeping up appearances and the threat of nukes than any real progress. When history is written a few hundred years later, the mighty USSR will be more a footnote and a temporary blip on America's progress.
If you define progress as "what you can do internationally", then fine. I don't. I define progress/growth as substantial improvements in the nation's fundamentals that has a direct improvement in the lives of the people in the country. Being a superpower on the global stage while withstanding daily power cuts like a poster from India has written prior is not something I consider real progress.
China will never lead the world with its present communist system like the United States does. And it will open up one day like the USSR, just wait and watch what happens then.
Most of your statements above are pure speculation ... This will happen .. that will happen ... in stead let us concentrate on what is happening and what has happened historically ......
The Soviet Union did lead the world in a cold war era and if you look deeper you will find how it balanced the power equation to lead the world in equilibrium as opposed to a one super power entity .
And the same thing is now happening with China ..... it is fast becoming a super power and with the economic growth like what it is on today , will soon be the second super power .... and mind it China has a lot of exports (more than any other country ) unlike the Soviet Union ...... so the thought of its collapsing is far fetched .
The question was about super power and I thought you stated that a country cannot become a super power or lead the world if internally it is not fundamentally strong ...... And that is not the case with Soviet Union or China ....
In fact as has been witnessed , US has gained the International status it has not because of its economy might but due to its military might .....
India will be an economic giant but may not be a super power as due to the non aligned doctrine followed by the country ....
To reiterate how a country projects itself internationally has little to do with whats happening inside ......... India's economy is growing internationally -- should we understand then that the corruption is reducing ??? No they both are to an extent independent of each other ...... or some times work in the same direction ........
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Fido.
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Originally posted by BlueLobster
It is not all over for India, there is still a lot of potential. The rupee will recover in time. Just like all other countries though, India is not at all immune from the global economic crisis and if someone thought that India (and even China for that matter) will simply skate through this period without a glitch, they've got another thought coming.
The notion that India will somehow topple US and become a super-power by 2050 is pure hogwash. No matter what numbers those crooks at Goldman-Sachs are cooking up (we've all seen how accurate their numbers are recently). As I've said before, monetary growth on its own does very little and while there's been plenty of that recently in India, the other basics required for national maturity have hardly kept up. Infrastructure is still a mess and keeps getting worse with the nation getting richer, which is a huge red flag right there (it should work the opposite way in a nation gunning for global superiority). Lawlessness is rampant to a point where people are finding ways to justify corruption (make it legal etc.). Resources are spread thin and the corruption makes any foresight in their use impossible.
A country in which the fundamentals deteriorate while people get richer cannot expect to lead anything. There will be pockets of progress however it will be scattered and disorganized, never complete. And when the world turns it attention to another country (Brazil for instance), things will go downhill.
China is a bit different because of their manufacturing and organization, however any notion that China will overtake the US with respect to true super-power status is pure hogwash as well. You need to be an open nation to lead the world, not the black box China is currently. Without democracy, China will at best continue the status quo.
And agree that the comparison to Canada is utterly pointless, both countries have their pluses and minuses - pick where you want to live and try to make the best of it.
Good Post !! my Salute !
Fully Agree, specially on the fact that India / China on way to be a super powers in near future is a hogwash. .. (they are good potential as a consumer and thats the driving factor behind all these wishy washy news bulletins )
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Originally posted by san-hugo
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Originally posted by BlueLobster
It is not all over for India, there is still a lot of potential. The rupee will recover in time. Just like all other countries though, India is not at all immune from the global economic crisis and if someone thought that India (and even China for that matter) will simply skate through this period without a glitch, they've got another thought coming.
The notion that India will somehow topple US and become a super-power by 2050 is pure hogwash. No matter what numbers those crooks at Goldman-Sachs are cooking up (we've all seen how accurate their numbers are recently). As I've said before, monetary growth on its own does very little and while there's been plenty of that recently in India, the other basics required for national maturity have hardly kept up. Infrastructure is still a mess and keeps getting worse with the nation getting richer, which is a huge red flag right there (it should work the opposite way in a nation gunning for global superiority). Lawlessness is rampant to a point where people are finding ways to justify corruption (make it legal etc.). Resources are spread thin and the corruption makes any foresight in their use impossible.
A country in which the fundamentals deteriorate while people get richer cannot expect to lead anything. There will be pockets of progress however it will be scattered and disorganized, never complete. And when the world turns it attention to another country (Brazil for instance), things will go downhill.
China is a bit different because of their manufacturing and organization, however any notion that China will overtake the US with respect to true super-power status is pure hogwash as well. You need to be an open nation to lead the world, not the black box China is currently. Without democracy, China will at best continue the status quo.
And agree that the comparison to Canada is utterly pointless, both countries have their pluses and minuses - pick where you want to live and try to make the best of it.
Good Post !! my Salute !
Fully Agree, specially on the fact that India / China on way to be a super powers in near future is a hogwash. .. (they are good potential as a consumer and thats the driving factor behind all these wishy washy news bulletins )
I belong to the same thought process and must kudo to BL's posts here. Everyone seems to be living in a wishful thinking these days, but not looking at the ground realities in India.
Living on the past glory (pre 1800s) doesn't make a difference unless the pillars of the society learn from it and move forward positively. Good luck to those who think otherwise.
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