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Posted on: 06-01-17 22:32:05
Election days again. Schedule is out.
State elections are generally seen as reflection of performance of party at center. :-) BJP !!
Though all eyes are on UP but other state elections are important from following questions perspective :
Goa - Can BJP retain the power OR will AAP make it as first state win or second as same day punjab results will be out. My guess is AAP might come close to win here. BJP still is favorite.
Punjab - I have no doubt AAP is winning here, question is how many seats will BJP and Congress will get from this state ?
Manipur - Can BJP win over 15 years incumbent Congress ?? This for me will be an interesting contest. My guess is Congress will be winner here by small margin. Polls are projecting BJP as winner.
Uttrakhand - Again the BJP vs Congress was neck to neck in last elections here. Can BJP add this state to their list ? BJP might win this. Congress is will continue with the losing spree.
UP - LOL Goofy Mulayam and Akhilesh. Uska Chacha and then Bua Ji and in sabka uncle Modi. bigg rally in Lucknow by BJP made it interesting. This seems like will be hung decision and two parties compromising to join to make an alliance for the power.
Interesting times...
Quote:
Originally posted by san-hugo
Punjab - I have no doubt AAP is winning here, question is how many seats will BJP and Congress will get from this state ?
The opinion polls are showing a different picture whereas most of the locals here in GTA, who have relatives and friends in Punjab, have different opinion. It is confusing. What is the ground reality without any bias.
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A Delhite in Toronto
Quote:
Originally posted by san-hugo
Election days again. Schedule is out.
State elections are generally scene as reflection of performance of party at center. :-) BJP !!
Though all eyes are on UP but other state elections are important from following questions perspective :
Goa - Can BJP retain the power OR will AAP make it as first state win or second as same day punjab results will be out. My guess is AAP might come close to win here. BJP still is favorite.
Punjab - I have no doubt AAP is winning here, question is how many seats will BJP and Congress will get from this state ?
Manipur - Can BJP win over 15 years incumbent Congress ?? This for me will be an interesting contest. My guess is Congress will be winner here by small margin. Polls are projecting BJP as winner.
Uttrakhand - Again the BJP vs Congress was neck to neck in last elections here. Can BJP add this state to their list ? BJP might win this. Congress is will continue with the losing spree.
UP - LOL Goofy Mulayam and Akhilesh. Uska Chacha and then Bua Ji and in sabka uncle Modi. bigg rally in Lucknow by BJP made it interesting. This seems like will be hung decision and two parties compromising to join to make an alliance for the power.
Interesting times...
I didn't know that assembly elections were happening in the UK
While some of your observations are quite obvious, the future for AAP is upwards. From ground level (0 seats) it can only go up or stay where it is (no change). So it will not be surprising if they win a few seats - but to imagine a majority is far fetched. These days I dread to make any forecasts for elections after the crazy results all over the world.. BREXIT, Trudeau, Trump...
Assembly elections are harder to win for national parties who are not already in power. Technically it will only be loss for BJP if they lose power in GOA and Punjab.
The alternate are more pathetic than the BJP options, so not sure if there is anything to celebrate regarding BJPs loss.
Hiren
Quote:
Originally posted by Delhite
Quote:
Originally posted by san-hugo
Punjab - I have no doubt AAP is winning here, question is how many seats will BJP and Congress will get from this state ?
The opinion polls are showing a different picture whereas most of the locals here in GTA, who have relatives and friends in Punjab, have different opinion. It is confusing. What is the ground reality without any bias.
Believe me I am neither guessing nor going by what media is showing ( I am aware of recent ABP news opinion Poll, amuses me a lot ! a total lie but we all know true face of media by now ).
I am going by an on-ground situation in Punjab. I have spoken to my contacts, been seeing youtube videos by some low profile struggling journalists of local channels or cable news who went village to village and took interviews of people. Been following the reports, videos and photos of recent rallies by various political parties. Then there is social media!
Punjab people are looking for change and AAP provides that option. There is faction which considers AAPians as 'outsiders' or at times non-sikh or non-punjabis but they are also slowly changing there thought process seeing performance of other parties in center or other states.
An amusing story , recently to test the voting machine , EC team chose 25 people from a village in Punjab and asked them to test vote. They were surprised to see that 20 votes were casted to AAP. There is another village which has put a board on road leading to it that the whole village will vote for AAP, do not bother campaigning here. well, may be these are few odd stories, it may not define the final outcome of elections, but it tells the mood of people.
Lets see what opinion polls are saying
GOA
1.
Axis - India Today 5th Jan 2017
BJP - 20-24 (22)
INC - 13-15 (14)
AAP - 2-4 (2)
Others - 1-4 (2)
2.
Axis - India Today Oct 2016
BJP - 17- 21 (19)
INC - 13-16 (15)
AAP - 1-3 (2)
Others - 3-5 (4)
Clearly Opinion polls till now favors BJP in GOA, AAP is getting hardly few seats.
My reading is there AAP & BJP will go neck to neck and might even edge BJP out.
Manipur
Axis - India Today[7] Oct 2016
BJP - 31-35 (33)
INC - 19-24 (23)
Others - 3-5 (4)
Last elections out of 60 seats INC won 50. it is incumbent for past 15 years. Will BJP take advantage of incumbency ? Manipur has literacy rate of 80%, remember. That means this is no-bullshit (read religion, caste) voter population. This is true test of BJP and its performance in center.
I think Congress still will be the choice of Manipur.
PUNJAB
Polling firm/Link Date SAD-BJP INC AAP
India Today-Axis Jan 2017 18-22 (20) 56-62 (59) 36-41 (38)
Lokniti-ABP-CSDS Jan 2017 50-58 (55) 41-49 (46) 12-18 (16)
Axis - India Today Oct 2016 17-21 (19) 49-55 (54) 42-46 (44)
LoL , the Opinion polls agencies are all over the place in Punjab Its Either BJP/SAD winning or Congress. Seems like it is their own 'Opinion' than the people of Punjab.
Onground reading is - Its AAP all the way though off late Congress has started to impress some part of Punjab. This is good contest but BJP/SAD is sure to Lose here.
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